Thread by @SamPEAK1951

Only 1 gov’t has been elected with >50% of the popular vote in the last 100 years.
How would #ProportionalRepresentation have changed GEs in last 100 years??
In the 100 years from 01/01/1921 to 31/12/2020, Tories have been in power for 62.6% of the time & Labour for 37.4%.
1/11

I have redistributed MPs on a popular vote, proportional basis for all GE in the last 100 years.
[DM email address for Excel spreadsheet.]

Only 1931 election gives in a clear majority for 1 party: Tories = 63 seat maj. (not really valid as the campaign was for a GNU).
2/11

GE1935 was also based on a campaign for a GNU which would give a Tory led coalition gov’t.

All other elections no single party gains a majority.

Considering natural allies for coalition gov’ts:

Tories + UKIP have a maj. from GE2015.
3/11

Labour + Liberal/Liberal+SocDems/LibDems/Greens coalitions would have maj. from the GEs in:1923, 1924, 1929, 1945, 1951, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (Feb), 1974 (Oct), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010.
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4/11

Stretching the progressive ally net gives Labour dominated coalitions in the GEs in: 1922, 1959, 2017, 2019.

GE1955 is well hung (🥴) & would probably be minority Tory gov’t.

Using #PR the Tories would be in power for 22.0% of the time & Labour led gov’ts for 78.0%
5/11

That is the past. Next GE is FPTP.

IMHO:
Most of Scotland belongs to the SNP;
The Greens will improve massively;
PlaidCymru will improve;
For the LibDems, the taint of the coalition (& Swinson) still lingers, & they will be roughly static or maybe improve a bit.
6/11

Labour is in disarray & proposed boundary changes will damage their chances further. To get a maj. at next GE is merely a dream.

The only way to #GTTO is an alliance of progressive parties with a no competition electoral pact & single candidate fighting sitting Tories.
7/11

Complex to organise – YES, but necessary.
@UKLabour, @Keir_Starmer, @LibDems, @EdwardJDavey, @TheGreenParty, @CarolineLucas your country needs you to work together.

No dick measuring contests.
Come up with a set of common major policies & fight the Tories, NOT each other.
8/11

We all known that FPTP is undemocratic.

To ensure that the Tories (or another party) cannot dominate the HoC from a minority vote in future, the alliance must also commit to implementing #ProportionalRepresentation as a 1st, irrevocable priority.
9/11

There is growing support for #PR in @UKLabour. The sooner @UKLabour commits to a democratic HoC the better.

(Other parties would also be interested in #ProportionalRepresentation for the HoC. @SDLPlive, @AlliancePartyUK, @Plaid_Cymru, @theSNP.)
10/11

Let’s go for progressive democratic gov’ts in the future instead of the minority, pendulum gov’ts we are suffering now and have suffered in the past.

Thanks for reading.

That’s it. Rant over!
11/11