Thread by @bopinion

When the country began closing down last March, it was clear that food supply chains would be severely tested.

But nobody predicted that we’d run out of Grape-Nuts trib.al/eMfXm5K

Grape-Nuts ran out in early December, and won’t be back at full capacity until mid-March. Other cereals have also been hit by capacity and supply constraints:

🥣Cheerios
🌽Corn Flakes
❄️Frosted Flakes
🍯Honeycomb trib.al/eMfXm5K

The past year has been weird for the breakfast-cereal industry. Not bad -- sales were up.

But for companies that were used to decline, or at least stagnation, the sudden increase in demand was a shock. So, do Americans really love cereal again? trib.al/eMfXm5K

Before 2020, the biggest one-month % increase in cereals consumption was 5.6%, in July 1973. Last March it was 26.9%.

The BEA’s definition of cereals is a broad one, encompassing things like pasta, rice and flour as well as Cheerios, but you get the idea trib.al/eMfXm5K

For the two biggest U.S. cereal makers, the 2020 demand increase came after years of sales declines.

The sharpest turnaround was at General Mills, maker of:

🍯Honey Nut Cheerios
🍞Cinnamon Toast Crunch
🥣Cheerios
🍀Lucky Charms trib.al/eMfXm5K

At Grape-Nuts maker Post Consumer Brands, the past few quarters didn’t stand out quite so much but were still pretty solid.

Post's core cereals are:

🍯Honey Bunches of Oats
🥣Pebbles (which includes Fruity Pebbles and Cocoa Pebbles)
🌾Great Grains trib.al/eMfXm5K

Not on that list: Grape-Nuts, a cereal made not of grapes or nuts but flour, salt and yeast.

Just over a decade ago, the WSJ’s Barry Newman described the manufacturing process in vivid detail: trib.al/eMfXm5K

That was in Ceres, California. Post closed that factory in 2013 & shifted production to its original complex in Battle Creek, Michigan.

During Nov and Dec., Covid absenteeism led them to temporarily suspend production, resulting in the Grape-Nuts shortage trib.al/eMfXm5K

Is cereal is back? Maybe. But it isn’t exactly what it used to be.

Both Kellogg and Post were founded as health-food companies, inspired by the teachings of doctor/nutritionist/entrepreneur John Harvey Kellogg trib.al/eMfXm5K

Whether a breakfast built around Cheerios or Grape-Nuts is truly healthy is up for debate, but they are generally wholesome, low-sugar products.

By contrast, most of today’s leading breakfast cereals seem better suited for dessert trib.al/eMfXm5K

Here are the top-selling cereal brands plus a couple of others mentioned here with Famous Amos chocolate chip cookies 🍪

As you can see, perhaps a cereal revival wouldn’t be the best thing for American health trib.al/eMfXm5K

Are you are cereal fan?