@coloradotravis thoughts on this today?
One thing I find very confusing: yesterday, stocks were down because yields were up. Today, stocks are down because yields are down.

Huh?
So I, perpetually confused by the bond market, understand that if yields are up, bond prices are down. So TLT for example goes down.

I get that with higher yields the search for yield calms and there’s less pressure to own growth stocks, so stocks go down.
But then I am a little confused by the implications for a portfolio where stocks go up during risk on and bonds go up during risk off. I guess people go to cash because yields are up?

Yet the whole idea is now that yields are up people want more bonds?
So for yields to be up the bond price has to be down... but then this makes people leave stocks for cash on day 1 and the very next day put them into bonds on day 2?
Or are stocks just down due to the fear over not being able to predict interest rates? Topping and then reversing shows instability and unpredictability?

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More from @ChrisMasterjohn

27 Feb
In wondering why an “economic” forum would want to shut down the economy, including factories, I considered what they said themselves in the video and I think I have the answer:

They realize tech will replace most workers, so most workers don’t matter. (thread)
If robots can replace most workers, then we can pay most workers universal basic income to shut up and sit in their apartment.

Granted delivery has to be done during lockdown, but they can be replaced by drones soon.
Now, what about Main Street?

The thing is, how many ultra billionaires are there? They only need enough Main Streets to provide nice ambience and service in the areas they frequent.

So they just don’t need that many Main Streets.
Read 9 tweets
25 Feb
The World Economic Forum invites Xi Jinping as a special speaker, who is currently committing genocide against Uyghurs, holding them in concentration camps and harvesting their organs...

... but their interest in the vaccine passport is to SAVE LIVES?
Read 4 tweets
24 Feb
For your daily “astrology” lesson, the bitcoin dip occurred immediately after hitting a 9 on the @ToneVays MRI indicator, which should be similar to TD Sequential, and it ended and reversed when hitting a 9.

The green 1 plus green star suggests the pullback is over. Image
By “astrology” I mean to make fun of the people who think technical analysis is like astrology. Yeah right.
The pullback occurred on the 4h timescale and if its recovery is maintained it will have reset the daily count, allowing for MORE upside within and incredibly bullish monthly and weekly chart that are just getting started.
Read 12 tweets
23 Dec 20
The Federal Reserve is owned by the banks. It wants to make sure inflation happens. Why? Because it encourages borrowing. Banks profit when people borrow.

That means it steals your purchasing power to encourage you to borrow and pay interest. So it takes from you twice.
The best analogy I can think of is when, during the industrial revolution, governments raised taxes on farmers so much that they had to move to cities and take jobs they otherwise wouldn’t want to be able to survive.
This is completely immoral, and is theft.

Wake up and listen to @michael_saylor if you want to preserve what you have.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jun 20
A famous study done in 2001 and 2002 in Chicago and Boston randomly applied white-sounding and black-sounding names to 4,890 fake job applications and found that white-sounding names got 50% more callbacks (10.06% vs 6.7%).

nber.org/papers/w9873
A more recent study in 2016 did the same thing with 15,000 job applications in New Jersey and New York City, before and after bans were put in place asking about criminal records.

academic.oup.com/qje/article-ab…
Overall whites got 22% more callbacks than blacks (12.9% vs 10.5%). While differences in cities & methodology might account for differences from the 2001-2002 study, I suspect that this at least in part reflects a substantial decline in racial discrimination over those 15 years.
Read 17 tweets
4 Apr 20
Why is PPE considered first for medical personnel?

It should be considered first for the massive labor force that should be reallocated to making more PPE.

That way the medical personnel don’t run out of PPE.
We have a wartime-level lockdown, but our economic stimulus package looks meant for a 2-month recession. Where is the economic mobilization to fight the war?
For someone whose position is fine, the rational thing to do with an extra $1500 is save it. For someone who lost their job, $1500 isn’t good enough.
Read 14 tweets

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