Possible 🇺🇸 arms sales restrictions on 🇸🇦 raises a question: Is there such a thing as a "defensive weapon"? Can some weapons ONLY be used to STOP attacks?
International Relations scholars are (mostly) unanimous: No
Also, it is possible that a state's military will have a "defensive strategy" -- i.e. non-expansionist -- rather than an "offensive strategy" -- i.e. expansionist.
Where the criticism comes in -- and this is now pretty much the consensus view among international relations scholars -- is that there is no such thing as a "purely defensive" weapon.
Early scholarship on the "offensive-defensive balance" claimed that an "offensive v defensive" distinction could be made regarding the nature of weapons.
Let's focus on the Levy piece. He points out that the key is whether a weapon "disproportionately" contributes to either defense or offense
The problem, Levy points out, is that a weapon, even an aggregation of a weapon, has to be considered along with its intended use & doctrine.
He uses tanks and Napoleon to make his point.
Or consider forts (or even missile defense systems)
- On the one hand, forts protect.
- On the other hand, if forts protect you from counter-attack, then you could be more inclined to LAUNCH an attack.
Even subsequent work seeking to defend (no pun intended) "offense-defense theory" acknowledged that the characteristic of the weapon was not highly important to the theory.
This piece ultimately defends "offense-defense theory" as a useful way of explaining global trends in conflict. But even here, "technology" is defined so that "tools" are just one element of technology
How the various elements of "technology" interrelate is what produces either "offensive dominance" or "defensive dominance". She summarizes her coding in the below table.
Recent work has sought to extend the idea of offensive-defensive balance into the cyber realm.
You would think that cyber is an area where tech/tools alone make the difference, right? Wrong 👇
To be clear, the above offers just a sample of the huge body of work on both offensive-defensive theory in general and military technology specifically.
Both of those could probably be their own threads!
But what the above pieces show is that labeling a weapon as "defensive" or "offensive" is not a useful distinction (even for those who are offensive-defensive theorists).
Like many aspects of international politics, when asked, "is a weapon defensive?" the answer is "no, because it depends!"
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What causes civil wars? Are they driven by ethnic differences? By poverty? Something else?
Here is how my Quantitative Security students will explore those questions.
[THREAD]
Unlike the quantitative study of interstate war, civil wars didn't receive big attention until the 1990s. That decade witnessed a spike in the number of internal wars, especially relative to "inter-state wars".
After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.
That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even needed?
This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.
That's a tall order!
Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.