Thread by @magi_jay

Collins, Murkowski, Manchin & Sinema occupy the political center, but I think there's a distinction btwn their motivations. Collins & Murkowski feel pressure to demonstrate allegiance to the GOP, whereas Manchin & Sinema feel they must demonstrate independence from their party

This results in a situation where any 1 of these 4 is a potential swing vote. But, in the case of Collins & Murkowski, we have to convince them that it's worth it to break w/ their party, whereas, in the case of Manchin & Sinema, we have to convince them it's worth staying united

In the case of Manchin & Sinema, I think in some cases they are responding to real external pressure (voters in tough states) &, in many other cases, I think they're acting on manufactured pressure they've either imagined or has been inflated by conservatives and/or the press.

I think it's important to understand this dynamic if we want to drag Manchin & Sinema in line. I wish they weren't the way they are, but, given the reality, I think we maximize the possibility of getting their support by recognizing this (irritating) non-partisan posturing

In the case of the minimum wage fight, Manchin & Sinema are not on board w/ $15. If we overrule the parliamentarian, rather than make $15 a separate fight, I think Manchin & Sinema will just become more intractable. It's better for the min wage to make it a separate issue

I'm not defending either of them, btw. Sometimes I think their behavior makes sense and, at other times, I think they're putting on more of a show than responding to actual political pressure. I find Sinema's behavior especially baffling on issues like "Long Senate Traditions."

It does! I think the motivations for the "independents" in either party differ, but the outcome is the same= be wary of becoming overly associated with Democrats.

https://twitter.com/KittenBalerion/status/1365720212985810945

Collins seemed to feel some pressure to separate herself from the GOP in her election year, but otherwise she seems to feel the opposite: "If there are four issues, you can vote w/ Democrats exactly once, even if you agree w/ them on all of them."

I think it's pretty clear from the context of my thread that when I'm talking about these individuals occupying the political center, I'm talking about Congress, not necessarily electoral opinion. This is why I speak about "manufactured" pressures.