Sunak signals austerity lite - time for Labour to wake up and start making an argument: for borrowing, spending, growth and monetary activism... 1/ link.medium.com/UwVlHTWReeb
2/ Sunak plans to plug £43bn "hole" though freezing income tax allowances, a phased-in corporation tax rise and cutting the aid budget - plus around £20bn of cuts or further tax rises not specified. Labour's job is to *oppose it all* - because it's austerity. But...
3/ What we need now is a comprehensive alternative vision, argument and policies. The remainder of Sunak's post-Covid stimulus is piss-poor: £20bn on offshore wind? Labour pledged £88bn. We need a Biden-scale 10% of GDP stimulus - and to stop worrying about bond yields...
4/ Because Labour (including large parts of its membership) refuses to have a political monetary policy, they're left arguing over whether to support or oppose business tax rises in a recession..medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
5/ There's only one place for a Labour MP when they vote on the Finance Bill - and that's in the No Lobby. What matters is the arguments you deploy in the next five days - and it should this... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
6/ We need a 10% of GDP fiscal/ monetary stimulus to power our way out of recession, decarbonise Britain and Covid-proof the economy. 100% debt/GDP is an arbitrary target, no more "dangerous" than 60%. It's being used to justify austerity/inequality... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
7/ The dead-end argument between LOTO and SCG, over whether to support a Tory austerity package (because that's what corporation tax rises is) is a symptom of HAVING NO VISION/ POLICIES OF YOUR OWN... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
8/ Few on the left, even under Corbyn, were prepared to say: borrow, spend, massive QE and hit the bond vigilantes with capital controls. Until we do, the left is in a no-win argument with "redistributive austerity" a la Darling/Brown as the endpoint medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
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Thread: 1/ Labour's @JohnHealey_MP just set out a pretty comprehensive defence overview that is a) clearly anti-tory both in policy and principle b) stands a chance of reconnecting with the voters Labour needs to win...
2/ The key points were - as under Corbyn - support for NATO, for Trident renewal, multilateralism and rule of law, and UK-focused defence procurement strategy...
3/ Healey pointed out that all wings of Labour supported NATO at foundation - IIRC there were only 6 votes against it in parliament - 2x communists and 4x pro-CP ex-Labour MPs.... Bevan/Lee etc supported it and of course the Labour right designed it...
What would a left government do in next week's Budget? 1/ A massive pro-cyclical stimulus to put rocket boosters under those parts of the economy we want to recover fastest in H2 - ie start rebalancing away from low-value/low wage growth in the next phase...
2/ .... stimulus means a public spending hike, both on investment and day-to-day spend; that should be Labour's differentiator; there's no need for short-term tax rises *except* for rebalancing investment and behaviour...
3/ ... stimulus also means defect scrapping central bank independence. I don't care what you do de jury but independence is already a myth. Monetary sovereignty's gonna be a powerful tool against collapsonomics in the 2020s...
On Starmer's "reset" speech 1/ Tone better than content. He's genuinely indignant over the health inequalities Marmot points to, and with concrete language and examples - and policies - this will translate into an agenda for working class families...
2/ ... Roadmap to Yesterday a resonant phrase; inequality is economic stupidity likewise... and it was a "reset" in the sense of saying the phase of muted criticism during the pandemic is over... but...
3/ As I've said here: the case is clear for massive fiscal expansion now. Both Starmer speech and Dodds' Mais lecture frame permission for this - and he will be asked: how much is needed to build this new Britain... newstatesman.com/writers/315559
R is for Rosa: Reform or Revolution? Episode 1 of our series for @rosalux_global is out now. Please watch and RT, here's why.... 1/ She lived in an age of authoritarianism and war... so do we... rosalux.de/en/publication…
2/ .... Luxemburg realised the handed-down orthodoxy of the left was useless... so should we... rosalux.de/en/publication…
3/ ... she was a Marxist who realised truth should come from the masses... and that party bureaucracies were always pernicious... that's very relevant today... rosalux.de/en/publication…
UK GDP down 9.9% year on year - one of the worst Covid impacts in the world. 1/ But it would have been much worse without furlough, unlimited Bank QE and numerous yet-to-be quantified soft loans to businesses. The challenge now is recovery...
2/ Build Back Better is vacuous unless government prepared to go on a) borrowing and b) letting/telling the Bank to expand its balance sheet (I don't believe in the fiction of CB independence, and it's evaporated anyway)...
3/ This country is going to have a state-supported private sector for years to come. Better to recognise that and make the recovery state-led and substantially state owned...
Scotland is the key to the entire next 10 years of British politics... 1/ The SNP is approaching a decision point - if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood in May, there's a clear legal justification for #Indyref2newstatesman.com/politics/scotl…
2/ ... but there comes a point where it's either a giant string-along, without any intent to go for independence, or you stop talking about it and do it... but get real about the actual route... newstatesman.com/politics/scotl…
3/ The White Paper and the Growth Commission are from a different era. With Debt/GDP at 100%, 17% deficit, even on v favourable terms you don't achieve NZ/Denmark style capitalism without *class struggle*... that's the grand illusion of nationalism newstatesman.com/politics/scotl…