This was predictable, and predicted, by many who urged govt to act sooner in November/December. Great successes in 2021 on vaccine rollout should not blind us to the huge policy failure which immediately preceded it - a policy failure which cost thousands of lives.
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1366358367313289217
Lets not forget either the many voices in the media demanding Johnson and the govt "save Christmas", lobbying which ignored all health advice at the time. Many of the same people are now demanding the govt again ignore public health advice and accelerate reopening.
Responses to this illustrate, rather depressingly, that those inclined to give the govt an easy ride have an already worked out counter-narrative "it was the new variant". This did play a role, but so did policy. Earlier, tougher restrictions would have reduced this massive spike
Yet because of (a) this is one factor interacting with others (b) people prefer simple, unicausal narratives to complicated interactive narratives and (c) partisanship, there's a good chance "govt did little wrong, it was the new variant" becomes an entrenched acct of winter 2020
On top of this, strong govt performance immediately after will encourage a "halo effect", with those now positively inclined to the govt more willing to view earlier choices charitably. So there's a good chance they get off the hook for bad choices costing many lives.
One useful thing Labour and other opposition parties might want to do is push for a full independent enquiry of decisions in autumn/winter 2020, in the hope that reporting from this enquiry will unsettle this narrative in future.
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