The unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil: Herd immunity versus interventions | medRxiv
The recent & brutal resurgence of Covid in Brazil, in particular Manaus, belies earlier (contested) studies suggesting the region had reached her immunity medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The recent & brutal resurgence of Covid in Brazil, in particular Manaus, belies earlier (contested) studies suggesting the region had reached her immunity medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Buss et al suggested (largely from blood bank data) that 76% prevalence had been reached by last summer leading to the reduction in cases.
In fact by December hospitals were overwhelmed again.
Whilst there were no national lockdowns local NPIs were introduced
In fact by December hospitals were overwhelmed again.
Whilst there were no national lockdowns local NPIs were introduced
Despite Bolsanaro’s continuing unhelpful interventions the likeliest reason for the reduction over the summer were those NPIs in Manaus and many other states and cities, with the local provision of financial support for isolation.
Climate factors, too, may have played a part.
Climate factors, too, may have played a part.
Others had previously challenged the Buss study eg @WesPegden
Given the even worse second wave it seems self evident that those challenges are well founded
NPIs work as long as they are followed
Herd Immunity is likely to be very hard to achieve absent extensive vaccination
Given the even worse second wave it seems self evident that those challenges are well founded
NPIs work as long as they are followed
Herd Immunity is likely to be very hard to achieve absent extensive vaccination
https://twitter.com/wespegden/status/1336801382955933697
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