A long sobering look at the pandemic in the UK. The success of the vaccine rollout should not obscure the way that leaders failed to heed the lessons of spring 2020 to an extent that beggars belief nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Look at the cumulative deaths. Around 40k in spring of last year. In other words ~2/3rds of the total are from the last few months (data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…)
While some of this is down to the emergence of B.1.1.7, it is mostly down to an attitude that resisted taking appropriate action, and ignored scientific advice. As many will know, I think 'led by the science' isn't the right way round - we should be led by those we elect. But...
Elected leaders who have received scientific advice about the probable consequences of a particular policy cannot claim ignorance when those consequences come to pass. And when those consequences are as grave as 30k dying in the month of January, that should not be forgotten
So finally I 👏🏼 the UK's vaccine rollout - credit where it's due. But let's not forget how we got here, or who we lost on the way /end

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More from @BillHanage

21 Feb
The thing is that much of this article could have been written at multiple points over the last year. Viruses are not influenced by bluster. Fortunately they are impacted by vaccine induced immunity. A few thoughts... 1/n
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Cases are falling quickly in the UK and elsewhere, which is great. The reasons are not clear, but it is reasonable to think that some of it is down to the comparatively rapid and effective vaccine roll out *together with* current numbers of contacts 2/n
If those numbers of contacts and opportunities for transmission increase, then we can expect cases to increase too. That is why caution is merited. The more people are protected by vaccination, the more contacts can happen, and there is something else... 3/n
Read 11 tweets
2 Feb
I think it is fair to say now that B.1.1.7 is definitely more transmissible, and possibly more virulent. This also reports cases that have acquired E484K, a mutation found in the other variants. This is concerning, but not reason to go crazy. A thread 1/n assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
First let's put to bed any suggestion that overdispersion in transmission explains B.1.1.7's rise. Consider data from Denmark, Ireland and now LA to mention only a few. It's behaving as we expect 2/n
This is the weekly increase in England documented in the linked report since early October. It's quite interesting that it's not taken over completely but don't want to speculate why 3/n
Read 15 tweets
1 Feb
I am all for large amounts of testing, but I doubt this will be sufficient to do more than slow things down (good in its own right of course). There's also not much in here on what will be done in the event of a positive test. theguardian.com/world/2021/feb…
That's what people forget. If a positive test does not lead to action that stops transmission, meaning support to allow isolation and quarantine of contacts, you're really only keeping score for the virus
Read 4 tweets
23 Jan
Some recent credible studies from the UK suggest that the variant B.1.1.7 which was first detected there is not only more transmissible but associated with greater severity, measured by deaths. A thread 1/n
The studies on which this is based are summarized in this document. Notably, it is not founded on one study, but several. They incorporate different data, methods and different biases and they are all imperfect, but they point in the same direction. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 2/n
The upshot is that people infected with B.1.1.7 are about one third more likely to die than similar people infected with the pre-existing viral lineages. There is a LOT of uncertainty around that number. For a lot of reasons. But some increase (even if small) seems legit 3/n
Read 11 tweets
16 Jan
My announcement that I was running with a mask got a LOT of comment (from all sides) earlier. It’s in response to changes in the state of the pandemic and the transmissibility of the virus. Worth unpacking 1/goodness knows
First I posted the photo after a couple of interviews this week in which mask use outside was discussed in the context of surging infections due to the variant B.1.1.7. Here's one
And then this with RTE where were talked about mask use in the context of the situation in the Republic of Ireland, where cases are surging. I commented that I run with a mask. Hence the tweet

Read 13 tweets
15 Jan
I’ve thought long and hard about this. There is a constellation of circumstantial evidence around the most recently identified variant P.1, and what has been happening in Manaus, Brazil which makes me very seriously concerned. A thread 🧵
First Manaus has already been very hard hit by the pandemic. News reports in earlier stages told of rushed burials and bodies piling up reuters.com/article/us-hea…
The crucial thing was the rapid rates of transmission, not really mitigated by ‘flattening the curve’ any. total per capita mortality was not as high as might be expected elsewhere, but only because the age structure of the population in Manaus skews young citypopulation.de/en/brazil/amaz…
Read 13 tweets

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