1/4 Looking at $TGT earnings. At first glance, the market implied move looks low relative to what happens around Target earnings. 5.3% implied, 7.69% average.. 
2/4 And looking at my strategy analyzer, buying vol going into earnings has been pretty solid returns over the last couple of years. If you bought a straddle going into $TGT earnings you'd return about 200% on risk in 3 years. BUT..
3/4 Take a look at the seasonal impact. This shows us the earnings moves by quarter. We can see that the releases during q1 timeframe have been MUCH lower move. Never seen above 5%. $TGT
4/4 Lets look at these releases more in depth.. We can see that the implied move has outpaced the jump and move for each of the march releases last 3 years. All of a sudden I'm thinking things look pretty pricey... $TGT . Thoughts?
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