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@the_brumby

24 Feb

The 10,000-Foot View: Forever Lockdown Unraveling?

A short (for me) thread on what I perceive as the current macro situation (warning: contains some optimism)

1) I believe many have overestimated the degree to which people “like” lockdown. Sure, there are some.

1/15

But rather, they might simply “support” it as they believe it to be a necessary part of our societal approach to the virus due to that claim having been repeated ad nauseum in MSM.

2/15

Further, they have merely been inconvenienced by lockdown (the Zoom class) rather than decimated (working class), so they lack any incentive to question the prevailing narrative and instead conform to what is perceived as the virtuous course of action.

3/15

Read 16 tweets

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16 Feb

SCHOOL THREAD

So, R. Weingarten, President of the AFT and future recipient of TIME’s inaugural Worst Person of the Year award, is out gloating about how the new CDC school “reopening” guidelines are similar to what the AFT proposed in April 2020. Yes…one year ago. 1/20

First, it is obviously preposterous to look to guidelines (from a labor union) issued in the early stages of a pandemic (including raw case numbers despite 70x testing volume now) prior to much better data/science/studies being made available. But I’ll play along.
2/20

What did we know in April ‘20 about child/school transmission? Here are 15 studies/articles along w a key quote/synopsis from each.

Again, all of this has only been further solidified over the last 10 months. I’m just pretending we're stuck in April 2020 like the AFT-CDC.
3/20

Read 20 tweets

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9 Feb

COVID LESSONS FROM THE FREE MARKET: Among other places, much of my career has been in the capital markets. Such markets are not perfect, but they are an astonishing force to behold with much wisdom to bestow upon those willing to listen. So what lessons should we learn from
1/28

the markets as it relates to the COVID fiasco? 5 topics:

1. Markets Impose Humility Upon Models

The free markets have a way of imposing humility on those who think they have conquered them. The mad modelers and gov’t leaders will swear they saved millions of lives. Did
2/28

they? Let's look at Sweden-In April the lockdown modelers said that, if Sweden did nothing, almost 100,000 people would die by July 1. So Sweden did nothing and–what happened–the total was instead 5,490 with a curve similar to every lockdown country. Its hard to overstate
3/28

Read 28 tweets

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29 Jan

California. According to media, it reopened this week! NO. There is virtually nothing open in California and-PUNCHLINE-this thread will show it will NEVER reopen under its current tier system as, big surprise, it is mathematically flawed b/c it doesn’t account for testing volume

First, let’s dispense with the MSM “reopening.” Literally 99.9% of the State’s population is in the “Purple” tier, which means no schools, no gyms, no indoor dining, no bars, no offices, no museums, no arcades, no having visitors at home, no churches, no Disneyland, no nothing

Ok, now the reopening math. Each county’s tier is based on the WORST of two metrics: (i) positive PCR tests per 100k population and (ii) test positivity %. Of course there is some BS woke “equity metric” that factors in tree canopy, but let’s put that aside for simplicity.

Read 17 tweets

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21 Jan

Lockdowns don’t actually work (see pinned tweet). One reason is that it’s preposterous to think one can just halt an interwoven societal fabric. So “lockdown” is instead just poor people risking exposure to continue providing goods/services to rich people sheltering in place.
1/

A thousand books can (and will) be written on the harms of lockdowns. This thread will instead focus on its epic exacerbation of the divide between rich & poor. Last week I let 30 studies do the talking; this time I will let 23 pictures tell the story.

1. High earners are the ones that can work from home:

Read 29 tweets

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@the_brumby

15 Jan

Wow. Thanks to everyone who read, retweeted, and commented (including those taking the other side without being nasty). Since I had 4 followers at the time of my first tweet (certainly bots) I hoped 100 people or so might somehow see the thread. As of today (2 days later) it has

apparently been viewed over 1.2 million times.

I genuinely (naively) thought I might be able to have dialogue with all those interested. Fortunately/unfortunately, that has proven unrealistic given the response. Accordingly, I wanted to clarify a few things (if you couldn’t

tell from my original thread, brevity is not my strength, so apologies for another thread):

1.I believe in nuance and balance; Twitter rarely allows for either
2.I am certainly not a COVID denier. It’s a very real and horrible thing that has killed millions of people.

Read 26 tweets

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