The @TODAYshow said COVID cases were increasing this morning & the downward trend had "leveled off and turned around."
They said cited these states as the biggest increase in cases.
What do have in common? Huge drops LAST week from a polar vortex.
today.com/video/vaccine-…
They said cited these states as the biggest increase in cases.
What do have in common? Huge drops LAST week from a polar vortex.
today.com/video/vaccine-…
I first checked Louisiana, so I will use them as an example for how this is deceiving.
First let's look at total active cases. On January 19th there were 65,151. Yesterday there were 12,413. Clearly a downward trend.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/us…
First let's look at total active cases. On January 19th there were 65,151. Yesterday there were 12,413. Clearly a downward trend.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/us…
"But it spiked from 8,934 to 12,413 in the last week!"
Every single Wed. since the beginning of this graph there is a huge drop, followed by tiny increases over the following 6 days. This obviously has something to do with reporting. Today it will drop below the trough again.
Every single Wed. since the beginning of this graph there is a huge drop, followed by tiny increases over the following 6 days. This obviously has something to do with reporting. Today it will drop below the trough again.
"Ok, but they're talking about NEW cases. They're up! 39% like they said!"
They're not. Let's look at those.
Using 7-day rolling averages, a precipitous drop from 3,756 on 1/12 to 529 on 2/20.
"Then up to 901 a week later 2/26! 39%!"
It has dropped the last 3 days to 837.
They're not. Let's look at those.
Using 7-day rolling averages, a precipitous drop from 3,756 on 1/12 to 529 on 2/20.
"Then up to 901 a week later 2/26! 39%!"
It has dropped the last 3 days to 837.
So in other words, total *NEW* cases recently dropped to around where they were at their lowest point over the summer, ticked up a tiny bit over the previous week, and have already started dropping again this week.
The straight line is still trending down for the past 7 weeks.
The straight line is still trending down for the past 7 weeks.
So what happened in that tiny bump they were dwelling on?
The count from the week BEFORE THAT, during a polar vortex, dropped at a higher rate than the recent trend. People weren't going out in extreme weather to get tested. When it was over, they did, and the numbers caught up.
The count from the week BEFORE THAT, during a polar vortex, dropped at a higher rate than the recent trend. People weren't going out in extreme weather to get tested. When it was over, they did, and the numbers caught up.
Add those people who held off a week to get tested, to the people who would have this week anyway, and you have your tiny increase, insignificant to the overall still very downward trend.
This is how the news deceives to contort the data to fit the narrative they prefer to push.
This is how the news deceives to contort the data to fit the narrative they prefer to push.
And as you would expect, this effect is even more pronounced in Texas. HUGE drop from 12,774 on 2/11 to 3,201 on 2/18. Then a tiny rise to make up for the dip and continue straight trend down.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/us…
worldometers.info/coronavirus/us…
And total active cases never even saw the slightest of bumps.
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