Phenomenal job by @CryptoCobain and @ledgerstatus.
Completely worth 1.5 hours watching while copiously taking notes π.. Highly recommend to watch the whole thing.
Here are some of my key takeaways β€ alpha leaks below (!!!)π
/1
Completely worth 1.5 hours watching while copiously taking notes π.. Highly recommend to watch the whole thing.
Here are some of my key takeaways β€ alpha leaks below (!!!)π
/1
https://twitter.com/UpOnlyTV/status/1364547528587243525
Crypto foundations being built now for future.
Crypto is such a good analogy to 19th century British railroads. During 1840s huge bubble in railroad construction, whereby they laid tracks that they thought people would never use.
20 years later people used it all up.
2/
Crypto is such a good analogy to 19th century British railroads. During 1840s huge bubble in railroad construction, whereby they laid tracks that they thought people would never use.
20 years later people used it all up.
2/
When $BTC reaches $500k-$1M, not a lot of BTC will move on-chain anymore. Just like how central banks don't move gold around anymore, it's just a store of value. When everyone is #HODLing, BTC becomes much less volatile.
3/
3/
Non-BTC roles are here to stay. Even Mark Cuban agrees that you need BTC as SoV, and another crypto with programmable money. There are many promising "Ethereum killers" emerging...
/4
/4
... such as Polkadot, Solana etc. They are definitely better (technologically) than Ethereum in a lot of ways.
But Ethereum has a lot of network effects for settlement layer and very good coin distribution. Very hard to replicate this on other chains.
/5
But Ethereum has a lot of network effects for settlement layer and very good coin distribution. Very hard to replicate this on other chains.
/5
As Moore's Law - most trends are overhyped in the near-term, underestimated in long-term.
Hype cycles are usually correct but early. Almost always true in tech & markets.
i.e. DEX idea was "insane" in 2017. That's why #DeFi is so interesting today.
/6
Hype cycles are usually correct but early. Almost always true in tech & markets.
i.e. DEX idea was "insane" in 2017. That's why #DeFi is so interesting today.
/6
Su predicts that regulators will be more dovish towards #DeFi than we expect. They will be willing to let developers actually put out these projects into the market and experiment.
/7
/7
On TAC's investment philosophy:
TAC never sells their private investments β€ either ride to zero or a billion. If bearish on market, just short $ETH or $BTC, NEVER dump privates.
Bullish on #DeFi π
/8
TAC never sells their private investments β€ either ride to zero or a billion. If bearish on market, just short $ETH or $BTC, NEVER dump privates.
Bullish on #DeFi π
/8
A good options strategy: Buy a call sell a put. Allows you to buy dip, and use that premium to buy upside exposure
Options are useful because you don't have to be perfect on timing. Vs leveraged longs, you have to think where to stop, where to cut etc
/9
Options are useful because you don't have to be perfect on timing. Vs leveraged longs, you have to think where to stop, where to cut etc
/9
Yield farming will never be as high as YFI days in 2020 β€ similar to early years of bitcoin mining on a laptop.
Better risk-reward to just buy DeFi tokens, don't stake full capital. The safety is not priced in.
/10
Better risk-reward to just buy DeFi tokens, don't stake full capital. The safety is not priced in.
/10
Big game theory between sovereigns and regulators. You don't want to be the only country who bans, when the rest of the world is buying / adopting β€ then you are fucked.
/11
/11
The wealthiest people from society are already saying that this crypto here to stay.
The question now becomes: "How do you acquire 0.5% or 1.0% of supply", because they already own x % of all things that are popular / scarce.
/12a
The question now becomes: "How do you acquire 0.5% or 1.0% of supply", because they already own x % of all things that are popular / scarce.
/12a
These people think in log wealth vs nominal wealth --> "this can buy x in real world assets".
$BTC is naturally funneling to stronger and stronger hands π
/12b
$BTC is naturally funneling to stronger and stronger hands π
/12b
Retail will sell $BTC too early. You see that trend in good assets i.e. gold / ultra prime real estate.
Similar to China property boom early 2000s - people sold condos for 5x; after a year, another 3x more.
/12c
Similar to China property boom early 2000s - people sold condos for 5x; after a year, another 3x more.
/12c
Think like a whale - have an asset-to-asset mentality.
Wealthy people don't go into cash nearly as often as people think. Switch between assets, instead of moving back to cash.
Respect the unknowability of a lot of things, but be confident of your long-term thesis.
/12d
Wealthy people don't go into cash nearly as often as people think. Switch between assets, instead of moving back to cash.
Respect the unknowability of a lot of things, but be confident of your long-term thesis.
/12d
If you are starting out in crypto today, there are plenty of opportunities in early stage projects.
You get to participate in different networks: KSM, DOT, Parachain options, testnets, trade mining (ROOK / KeeperDAO) etc.
/13
You get to participate in different networks: KSM, DOT, Parachain options, testnets, trade mining (ROOK / KeeperDAO) etc.
/13
Su's book recommendations:
Market Wizards - amazon.com/Market-Wizardsβ¦
Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve - amazon.com/Soros-Staying-β¦
+anything on Reflexivity...
/14
Market Wizards - amazon.com/Market-Wizardsβ¦
Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve - amazon.com/Soros-Staying-β¦
+anything on Reflexivity...
/14
Mimetic Theories by RenΓ© Girard.
The market is what other people see the market as. You want to predict narratives to be popular in future, what communities are anti-fragile, what ideas that once sparked will cause chain reactions...
Theoretical but worth thinking about.
/14b
The market is what other people see the market as. You want to predict narratives to be popular in future, what communities are anti-fragile, what ideas that once sparked will cause chain reactions...
Theoretical but worth thinking about.
/14b
Su's advice: Have good risk management.
Compartmentalize the way you approach crypto. Set an amount for cold storage. Don't over-estimate your abilities.
This gives you freedom to take risk with the rest.
/15
Compartmentalize the way you approach crypto. Set an amount for cold storage. Don't over-estimate your abilities.
This gives you freedom to take risk with the rest.
/15
BTC predictions: Supercycle top @ $5M.
Rise to the top will be in bursts: short-term up and down a few k's, then sudden repricing burst -> can never rebuy at lower prices again. You don't know when the bursts will be.
/16
Rise to the top will be in bursts: short-term up and down a few k's, then sudden repricing burst -> can never rebuy at lower prices again. You don't know when the bursts will be.
/16
Not comprehensive but these are the key points that stuck with me. Add on anything that I missed and share it if it was helpful!
/end.
/end.
Shill: Non-obligatory but if you are interested in Bitcoin narratives from a macro / TradFi perspective, free to sub below π
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