Thread by @aeyakuze

I was a bit naughty & screen-grabbed the @WBTanzania presentation on #TanzaniaEconomicUpdate. Here are some of my takeaways.

Consistent growth over at least 2 decades generated momentum to push Tanzania over the LMIC threshhold.

The strong pace at which poverty declined has slowed down recently, meaning much of that economic growth has left many fellow Tanzanians out. The absolute number of poor Tanzanians has actually *increased* and the gap between the rich & poor has expanded. #TanzaniaEconomicUpdate

#TanzaniaEconomicUpdate Tanzania's middle class is very small & vulnerable to negative shocks (e.g., #COVID19). Should we care? Paul Makanza (Vice Chair of @tpsftz) asked whether we should grow the middle class or support the less fortunate. He voted for the less fortunate. You?

#TanzaniaEconomicUpdate Look at this huge #COVID19 shock to Tanzania's tourism sector, a major source of foreign exchange! If global gold prices had not soared (revenue) & oil prices not softened (major cost), Tanzania's trade balance would have been terrible. How lucky are we?!

At the macroeconomic level, we do have some stabilizing conditions from which to accelerate recovery: robust forex reserves (boosted by gold receipts, no doubt), and fiscal prudence (enhanced by aggresive tax revenue collection, perhaps). #TanzaniaEconomicUpdate

#TanzaniaEconomicUpdate These strategic pillars to improve the quality of Tanzania's growth are deeply political & they will have to be negotiated. All 3 require delaying the instant gratification of current consumption so as to invest (in our health & education) for the future.

#TanzaniaEconomicUpdate Here is one simple, concrete, meaningful, powerful and urgent place to begin - by being transparent about the status in Tanzania of the most virulent disease in living memory. And by inviting and facilitating a collective effort at a response & recovery.