Jawad Mian Profile picture
3 Mar, 10 tweets, 2 min read
1) Five years ago, Ken Langone asked Stan Druckenmiller, "What is the biggest mistake you made and what did you learn from it?"
2) Druck said in 1999, after Yahoo and AOL had already gone up ten-fold, he decided to short internet stocks.

He placed a $200 million bet in February and was down $600 million by mid-March.
3) He was very proud of the fact that he never had a down year but now his fund was down 15%.

"I'm finished," he thought.
4) He flipped his view, convinced the tech boom was going to stay. So he hired a couple of young gun slingers who bought the hot tech stocks.

The fund ended up 35% on the year.
5) Then in January 2000, he sold all his tech stocks.

Nasdaq had gone up 400% and was trading at 103 times earnings.

"This is crazy. This is nuts," he told Soros.
6) Druck got out of the market, but he kept the young duo who managed a small sum.

They were making 3% a day as Nasdaq kept rising. Quantum was up 7% while they were up 50%.

"It is driving me nuts," he said.
7) "I could feel it coming. I just had to play. I couldn't help myself."

Three times during the same week he picked up the phone and stopped himself.

"Don't do it, don't do it," the voice inside told him.
8) But in March, within an hour of the market top, he called in the order to buy $6 billion worth of tech stocks.

In six weeks he had left Soros and lost $3 billion in that one play.
9) "You asked me what I learned. I didn't learn anything. I already knew that I wasn't supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn't help myself.”
10) I highly recommend reading this transcript of Stan Druckenmiller's speech at the Lost Tree Club in 2015.

Now is the time to be inspired.
valuewalk.com/wp-content/upl…

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More from @jsmian

5 Mar
1) Since the Second World War, there have been three secular bull cycles with numerous cyclical trends occurring in between.

Thinking through them, we can guess what might be coming next. 🤔
stray-reflections.com/article/145/On…
2) The first was from 1950 to 1968.

The S&P 500 rose from 20 to 109 for a gain of 440 percent.

But twelve years into the secular bull market, there was a violent correction.
3) In 1961, stocks had risen 27 percent, with leading technology stocks like Texas Instruments and Polaroid trading at up to 115 times earnings.

And then, stocks “broke,” as The Wall Street Journal described it, seemingly out of the blue.
Read 20 tweets
26 Feb
1) The way we breathe is inextricably linked to the way we live.

I’m embarrassed how long it took me to figure this out.

Given my sinus I’ve been breathing poorly my whole life.

What I’ve learned 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

stray-reflections.com/article/170
2) Breathing, with awareness and intention, sits at the heart of spiritual practice.

To let one breath go, say the Sufis, without being conscious of it is a sin.
3) Breathing usually happens without us, of course.

Even if we try to stop, some force overpowers our efforts.
Read 25 tweets
22 Feb
1) If you review all the big declines in bond yields since the beginning of the secular downturn in interest rates in 1981, you find something very interesting.

Thread 👇

stray-reflections.com/article/92/The…
2) From each historic low, the 10-year Treasury yield retraced 50 to 61.8 percent of the drop over a span ranging from 2 months to 14 months.

The fundamental reasoning almost did not matter, this curious pattern held every time.
3) 1981-84: The 10-year yield fell from a high of 15.8 percent in September 1981 to a low of 10.1 percent in May 1983.

Then rose to 13.9 percent over 12 months and retraced 61.8 percent of the decline.
Read 14 tweets
19 Feb
1) I’ve noticed that I increasingly forget things.

It started with people’s names, then I'd forget plans, even early memories with my wife and children.

I began to worry what if my absent-mindedness affects my ability to think and write?
2) Once I was driving with my wife and she said excitedly, “Remember when...”

I wrack my mind, but I’m at a loss. She looks over at me and sees a blank face.
3) I quote Nietzsche to her, “The advantage of a bad memory is that one enjoys several times the same good things for the first time.”
Read 14 tweets
14 Feb
1) Stray Reflections is now 7 years old.

But I *almost* gave up multiple times on the journey.

This is that story. 👇🏼
2) By 2017, I had been writing for nearly three years and the business was generating no more than $40,000 in revenue.

My savings had run out. We were living month to month.
3) Mark Twain’s guidance for writers felt to me like a condemnation:

“Write without pay until somebody offers pay; if nobody offers within three years, sawing wood is what you were intended for.”
Read 25 tweets
7 Feb
1) Do you ever find yourself striving for perfection, and then being disappointed because it always eludes you?

THREAD 👇
2) As a young student in Hamburg, Peter Drucker went to see the opera every week.

He had very little money, but showing up an hour before the performance meant scoring any of the unsold cheap seats allocated to university students for free.
3) Upon one evening, he sat for Falstaff.

“I have never forgotten the impression that evening made on me,” he said, totally overwhelmed by Giuseppe Verdi’s comic opera.
Read 12 tweets

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