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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 Oct 20

I haven’t yet read the 449-page report yet, but this is why Zuck said a republican government might be better for Facebook. The conclusion that we must break up our crown jewels, which are consumer staples of the 21st century and create vast consumer surplus, is asinine.

I know a half dozen wrong-headed academics who make their living as moral panic entrepreneurs will be happy about this report.

Nobody else will. Certainly not their customers—the vast majority of us.

Nobody tell the FTC about click-and-collect, delivery...🤦🏻‍♂️

Read 6 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

21 May 20

Zuck:

- I expect 50% of our workforce will be remote over next 5-10 years

- COVID will be with us for a while

- Goal is to do our work better, not just maximize flexibility

- Gives us access to NEW POOLS OF TALENT and recruit more broadly (this is huge) that previously...

...wouldn't have considered moving to a big city

- One of the top reasons people leave us is they're moving to a city where we don't have an office

- Improved retention is very important

- I want us to live in a country where people have opportunity no matter where they live

- Positive environmental impact: less commute and less travel

- Easier to move bits around than atoms (VR/AR/video chat rather than sitting in traffic)

- Helps us eat our own dogfood in Portal, Workplace, Messenger Rooms, and over time AR & VR

- Workplace is now at 5m paid...

Read 17 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

7 Mar 20

I'm fascinated by huge market drawdowns and how the bottom is never obvious.

As they say, "Nobody rings a bell at the bottom."

In the Great Recession, the market bottomed on March 9th, 2009; it never looked back, and it was the start of one of the best bull markets ever.

Here are some choice quotes from the NYT, TWO DAYS before the bottom:

Byron Wien: he advises small investors to buy gold and corporate bonds, not equities, which, he said, may be too risky right now.

Barton Biggs: advises well-to-do investors to arm themselves with shotguns if need be against the possibility of a deepening downturn and accompanying “social unrest.”

Read 17 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 Mar 20

Pandemics seem to come in waves that reach a peak then die. This is the 1918 influenza pandemic. First wave was over in 6 months:

This is coronavirus in China, 2019-2020. That purple line is the equivalent wave (although these are cases, not mortality as above):

This is rest of the world. Still on the upswing. How long until it reaches the peak and subsides?

Read 19 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

12 Feb 20

Lyft's call last night was disappointing in 4 ways. First, while Uber feels a sense of urgency and has moved up its profitability target AND put out a 25% EBITDA target, Lyft did none of this. It's still sticking to its Q4 2021 profitability target.

Second, Uber pointed out that its EBITDA flow-thru rate was 80% (incremental EBITDA/incremental revenue) and that Dara is demanding just 55% from the team:

Meanwhile, Lyft is delivering flow-thru rates of ~30% and their FY2020 guidance implies 22% which is...disappointing to say the least:

Read 8 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 Jan 20

If you think your education is holding you back, remember that Thomas Edison never learned to spell and was home schooled by a mom who was completely unqualified.

It was his insatiable curiosity that propelled him forward.

Up to his 20s, Edison thought nothing of walking 150 miles to the next town to find work.

He frequently slept in rat-infested rooms and worked surrounded by cockroaches.

It's amazing how much wealthier & comfortable society has become since then (1860s).

Oh boy, the short sellers would go wild with this one

Read 19 tweets

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