Thread by @MarceloPLima

Pandemics seem to come in waves that reach a peak then die. This is the 1918 influenza pandemic. First wave was over in 6 months:

This is coronavirus in China, 2019-2020. That purple line is the equivalent wave (although these are cases, not mortality as above):

This is rest of the world. Still on the upswing. How long until it reaches the peak and subsides?

Another view of the epidemic curves in China
statnews.com/2020/03/03/was…

Annotated with interventions in China. Hopefully the collapse in travel and spike in hand washing does this for us:
who.int/docs/default-s…

Goal of interventions is to flatten that epidemic curve:
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

This is what a flattened curve looks like:

Fatality rates depend on how prepared health systems are, and R0 depends on preventive measures:

Impact of COVID-19 could be 2% hit to global GDP—huge—which stock markets are discounting:

The source is this excellent article from the Economist:
economist.com/briefing/2020/…

Finally, note that:

- Markets down 15% implies $0 in corporate profits for FOUR YEARS

As a friend noted, markets create the news (with their panics), and then we humans create the narrative.

From this excellent post:
brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-ca…

South Korea infections may be close to peaking: "South Korea reported the rate of new cases dropped three days in a row."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This article by the author of a book on SARS has a lot of good context.

Every outbreak goes thru:

- Denial
- Panic
- Fear
- Finally, basic sanitary measures and infection protocols!

"An epidemic, even one of a disease as seemingly easy to transmit as COVID-19, while burdening public-health systems and potentially deadly for the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, is eminently survivable by the majority of the population."

Here's the piece:
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Here is the growth rate as epidemics go up and down the bell curve (epi curve). h/t @golfsohard

https://twitter.com/MarceloPLima/status/1236292866886025216?s=20

Here we go: we just appointed an experienced and very competent person to head our coronavirus response: Deborah Birx
nytimes.com/2020/03/06/us/…

1.1 million tests have been sent to labs today, another million by Monday. By end of next week, another 4 million. We're catching up!
nbcnews.com/health/health-…