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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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3 Mar, 4 tweets, 3 min read
The Democrats' covid-19 relief bill polls above 50% in every state except Wyoming and North Dakota, according to my modeling of the last month's YouGov/The Economist polling. It's above 60% in 32 states, and supported by 64% of adults nationally.

ImageImageImageImage
Comparing the maps of majority state opinion and likely senate votes is really something ImageImage
Senators have done a lot of shrugging off of national polls showing high demand for relief. Sometimes, on policies with marginal support, you can get a pass. But the electoral math does not work that way here. When something is this popular nationally, it's popular everywhere.
Good Q here. Given that support for the bill is only loosely related to past vote, the effects of non-sampling bias are probably rather small here. But even if it's as biased as YouGov's 2020 election poll, relief is still at 60% support. Soo...

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Mar
Here are my estimates of Joe Biden's net approval rating in each state *among all adults*.

Note the wide margins of error, tho this is roughly what I'd expect based on uniform swing from a +4 election to +10-15 national net approval.

Controlling for 2020 and 2016 vote here. 1/ ImageImage
2/ Note the model is much closer to expectations when making estimates for the voting population, but still produces some odd numbers in GA and FL. Regularization in the south among col-educated whites is often an issue here, so again, emphasizing the MOE. Image
3/ These state-level estimates from national polls are good when we don't have state-level polls but aren't perfect. The point is to try to get a better picture of attitudes at the geographic level since we don't have national political institutions.
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
2 Mar
Told y’all
Weighting pollsters by their past accuracy is a really good idea that turns out not to improve forecasts that much, if at all. Some suggestive evidence: our vote share projections were better than 538’s in both 2020 and 2016 despite not adjusting for past error
All of this is muddied by assigning a letter grade to a pollster that gives more weight to “gold standard” phone pollsters that have little recent record of outperforming alternatives. It’s kinda easy to see this breaking down if you pay attention to evolutions in methodology.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
1 Mar
I am going to take the opposite view from Lee and say this poll is actually pretty bad news, as it confirms stubbornly high levels of partisanship + leaning. After a decline from 2004 to 2014, the % of Americans choosing something other than true Independent has risen back to 91%
Partisans are more likely than ever to refuse to label themselves as Ds or Rs outright, but (even after the events of the last 2 months) are no more likely to actually disavow their party when pressed. GOP identity is as low as it was all the way back in [checks chart] Dec 2018.
Perhaps more people than ever want third parties, but the parties they want are more extreme than those on offer, so the leaned percentage increases & voting behavior get more predictable as frustration rises. (This is consistent with other Gallup data.)

Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
28 Feb
honestly, i really dig the look of the internet in 2008
the information density here is vastly superior to what we have now
pour one out
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
24 Feb
Disconnect, disregard — potato potahto
When America's electoral institutions let you win the House, Senate, and Presidency while losing the popular vote, there are fewer incentives to actually listen to the will of the people
To me, one of the reasons why polling is so crucial to good governance is that there is literally no institution in America's federal government that gives a voice to the raw political majority 100% of the time. Polls work the ways democracies (and republics!) are supposed to.
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
21 Feb
One of the hardest parts about writing a book about trusting the will of the people to guide our gov right now is that about 25-30% of the public has basically been brainwashed by an anti-fact media ecosystem and radicalized by bad-faith opinion leaders.

So... why trust people?
The answer is at once obvious and a hard pill to swallow: The vast majority of Americans still see Jan 6 for what it (verifiably) was: a violent mob of Trump supporters trying to kill oppo leaders and overthrow the government. So we can still trust the majority. But we also have
to acknowledge that a ~fourth of Americans aren't adding to the wisdom of the public, bc they aren't getting information that would lead them to rationalize or otherwise deliberate about what government could do for them. The hard truth is that we can't always trust the people.
Read 7 tweets

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