A Thread on checklists to analyse a business based on @Gautam__Baid's book #TheJoysofCompounding
The book has explained the terms in a easy to understand language with less jargons. This thread is an attempt to summarise it.
Sales Growth:
- Higher is better
- High sales growth with no profitability = ×××
- Organic growth driven by internal accruals = ✓
- High growth driven by big-ticket acquisitions = Caution!
Gross Profit Margin(GPM):
- Focus on trend over the years
- Fluctuating cyclically = No pricing power
- High & stable = Possibility of economic moat
Interest Income (usually shown as other income):
- Should be atleast equal to Bank FD returns
Interest Expense:
- Low interest expense or high interest coverage ratio = Caution! {Interest cost could be capitalised}
Employee Cost:
- Must be in line with combined salary & benefits all employees.
Other Expenses:
- Unexpected rise during depressed market = Caution!
Taxes:
- Tax payout ratio should be in line with standard corporate tax rate
- If less then businees could have tax exemption or have accumulated losses
Net profit margin(NPM):
- Higher is better
- High sales growth with declining NPM = ×××
2. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
Cash Flow from Operation (CFO):
- Higher is better
- CFO << Net Profit (PAT) = Money stuck in working capital
CapEx:
- CFO > CapEx = ✓
- High sales growth with less CapEx = Captial light business
Total Debt:
- Lower is better for non-finance business
Cash Balance:
- High cash balance with no to very less dividends = Caution!
Free Cash Flow(FCF):
- FCF/CFO = Higher is better
- FCF negative with high dividend yield = ×××
- Intrinsic value of business depends on FCF or cash that can be taken out to the business
3. RETURN RATIO ANALYSIS
Self Sustainable Growth Rate(SSGR):
- Sales growth > SSGR = Business using more resources than operations can generate
- Sales growth < SSGR = ✓
One of the best explanation of SSGR is found on @drvijaymalik's website.
Profit before tax(PBT)/average net fixed assets:
- Higher is better
- Earnings from tangible assets > Bank's FD rate = ✓
Pretax Return on Tangible Equity:
- Higher is better
- High pretax return driven by higher debt = Caution!
Return on Capital Employed:
- Higher is better
4. OPERATING EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Net Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio:
- Higher is better
- Indicates how efficiently businesses uses its fixed assets
Recievable Days:
- Lower is better
- Receivable days constantly increasing : ××× {Could be a case of fictitious sales}
Inventory Turnover Ratio:
- Higher is better
- Lower means business is accumulating lot of inventory which could mean sale of finished product is not happening. Risk of inventory becoming obsolete.
5. BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS:
Net Fixed Assets:
- Sharp increase = CapEx program completion; could result in increased sales
Capital Work in Progress( CWIP):
- Sharp increase = CapEx program started
Share Capital:
- Ideal : constant over the years
- Buyback reduces share capital
- Bonus Shares: Increases share capital
- Increase without bonus shares = Dilution of existing shareholders.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
- Lower is better
- Low Debt-to-Equity Ratio but less cash = Caution! {Near term liquidity at risk, resulting in more debt}
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Recently read the excellent book by @Gautam__Baid " TheJoys of Compounding" - A passionate pursuit of life long learning
A thread on key takeaways, learnings and insights from the book:
Note: This thread will be updated in due course of time.
1. Becoming a Learning Machine:
Reading:
- Regularly read books / articles / blogs on topics of interest
Regular: Could be just a page per day
- Helps hone skills as well as improve as a person
- Way to benefit from experience of our ancestors
- Helps form mental models
2. Obtaining Worldly Wisdom Through Lattice Work of Mental Models
"Investing is a liberal art that involves cross-pollination of ideas from multiple disciplines"
Mental Models are formed:
- By reading from diverse disciplines
- By thinking & co-relating on what one reads