Thread by @DrZoeHyde

🧵 New work from me: I rebut scientific criticism & re-analyse school data from Victoria, Australia.

What did I find? Primary school children were a bit less likely to cause outbreaks than high school children, but this wasn't statistically significant.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/mj…

The proportion of events resulting in an outbreak was as follows:

Child, primary school (6-12 years): 31%
Adolescent, high school (13-15 years): 41%
Adolescent, high school (16-18 years): 40%
Adult (primary and high school): 39%

But note large, overlapping confidence intervals.

These data also have some important limitations.

First, not all contacts were tested, and so transmission may be underestimated.

This may particularly affect the data for primary school children, who might have been tested least.

Second, primary and high schools are very different settings. While it’s possible younger children might transmit less, differences in behaviour and environment are also important factors that could explain differences in the likelihood of an outbreak occurring.

That is, any differences in outbreaks may reflect the type of school and the opportunities for transmission in it, rather than an age-related difference in transmissibility.

Third, data for primary and high school staff are aggregated. It’s therefore not possible to see if adults were also slightly less likely to initiate outbreaks in primary schools compared to high schools.

The key finding is that children and adolescents appear to transmit the virus to their classmates at fairly similar rates.

This means precautions in primary schools and high schools must be similar.

All children who can safely wear a mask should do so.

A statistically significant difference was observed with regard to the childcare setting.

Children appeared less likely to initiate outbreaks in childcare compared to adults.

However, it is unclear if all of the children were tested, and so transmission may be underestimated.

But transmission clearly does occur in childcare.

Precautions must also be taken in the childcare setting. Ventilation should be improved, and all children who can *safely* wear a mask should do so.

⚠️ Children aged under 2 years should not wear a mask.
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

My article also rebuts some of the common misconceptions around children and COVID-19.

Here's the link again:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/mj…

And here are translations:

🇩🇪Deutsch:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=d…

🇫🇷Français:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=f…

🇳🇱Nederlands:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=n…

More translations:

🇪🇸Español:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=e…

🇵🇹🇧🇷Português:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=p…

🇯🇵日本語:
translate.google.com/translate?hl=j…

Finally, you can find my original article and the letters that prompted this response below.

Original article:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.56…

Letters in response:
mja.com.au/journal/2021/2…