Jerome Powell - “I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals.”

Translation: Rising long-term bond yields could keep the economy from returning to pre-COVID activity levels.
Problem: The Federal Reserve controls the money supply. It can shovel money into the economy and drive rates down temporarily and make things appear better. But more money doesn’t fix shutdowns, because lack of money didn’t cause them.
In the end, shoveling money into an economy causes money to lose value relative to goods and services. This inflation makes investors demand higher returns, which drives bond yields up. Easy money makes things “feel” better for awhile, but NEVER creates true wealth creation.
The Fed is reaching the end of its rope. And with government spending set to soar by another $1.9 trillion, the Fed has to keep trying harder to achieve its goals. But printing more money, and buying more bonds, just makes future problems worse.

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More from @wesbury

4 Feb
Inflation Is Coming!

Some say: Inflation didn’t rise after 2008-2015 Fed QE, so it won’t rise this time. Here are the problems with that argument.

1) From 2008-2015 regulators hammered the banks, so while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded, M2 did not accelerate.
2) In 2020, we used the banks to push out money, the opposite of the first round of QE. PPP loans were financed through banks and unemployment checks were direct-deposited.
3) The M2 measure of money is up more than 25% in the past 12 months.
4) That alone, 25%+ M2 growth, is enough, but we are compounding the problems.
5) Regulating fossil fuel production drives energy prices up.
6) Ag, industrial & transportation are energy intensive, and many claim they are bad for the environment. Result: higher prices.
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
When I worked on Capitol Hill in 1995/96, the Oklahoma City Bombing happened. That was when Pennsylvania Avenue in front of the White House was closed to traffic. Senate office Buildings and the Capitol increased security. People were pushed back from their Government.
Then 9/11 happened and the Government pushed people back even more. They built an underground visitors center for the Capitol Building. You used to be able to just walk in, but not anymore. Riots and fires near the White House in 2020 pushed back the people even further.
Today’s unjustified invasion of the Capitol will be answered with even more security and pushing people even further away. Think back to a time when people could just walk into the White House and ask for a meeting. Now, we are kept far, far away.
Read 7 tweets
30 Aug 20
Table 3 of the CDC’s data on deaths between 2/1 and 8/22 2020 says directly that only 6% of the 161,392 reported COVID deaths were listed as COVID-19 alone, just 9,684. All other US deaths had, on average, 2.6 additional conditions.…
What this means is that someone with Alzheimer’s, Sepsis and a Cardiac Arrest was counted in COVID-19 death totals just because they tested positive. Even if they showed no symptoms of COVID or even if it was a “false positive.” 9,684 deaths is 0.16% of “confirmed” COVID cases.
Every single death, from anything, is sad and hits home for some family. But shutting down the economy over COVID-19 will go down in history as one of the biggest mistakes ever made. Debt, job losses, emotional health, less resources for future problems, small biz shutdowns.
Read 4 tweets
19 Mar 20
1 - Something to think about. The way we calculate the death rate of the Coronavirus is deaths/confirmed cases. The way we count the death rate from influenza (regular annual flu) is deaths/estimated cases.
2- So far, in the 2019/20 Flu season, the CDC says the US has done 1,073,976 tests for influenza and found 222,552 positive. Deaths due to the flu are estimated at 22,000 to 55,000. If we take the low-end of 22,000 and divide that by confirmed cases, it’s a 9.9% death rate.
3 - But, that’s not the way we report it. The CDC uses estimated cases of 36 million to 51 million and gets a death rate in the tenths of a percent for the annual flu.
Read 4 tweets

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