A short good news 🧵on trends inhospitalisation and deaths ahead of this afternoon's @IndependentSage briefing.
First up - hospital admissions continue to fall by the day. We are down to around 600-700 a day in England - rates not seen since mid-October.
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First up - hospital admissions continue to fall by the day. We are down to around 600-700 a day in England - rates not seen since mid-October.
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The English regional picture looks good too, with hospital admissions falling in all regions.
These will continue to fall for at least a few more weeks irrespective of the impact of school returns as admissions are lagged by a couple of weeks from infections.
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These will continue to fall for at least a few more weeks irrespective of the impact of school returns as admissions are lagged by a couple of weeks from infections.
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Hospital occupancy also continues to fall. We are now well below first wave peak levels. We're now down to levels we haven't seen since the end of October.
As with admissions, occupancy will continue to fall for some time yet, further releasing pressure on the NHS.
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As with admissions, occupancy will continue to fall for some time yet, further releasing pressure on the NHS.
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Reported numbers of daily deaths in England continue to fall sharply. The seven day average is now around 250 per day. Whilst still high, we haven't seen these sorts of levels since before last November's lockdown.
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Finally looking at deaths reported by death certificate (which is typically the gold standard measurement - but is lagged by several weeks) we can see the same sorts of declines.
There were 4,448 deaths reported across the UK for the week ending 19th Feb.
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There were 4,448 deaths reported across the UK for the week ending 19th Feb.
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We shouldn't forget that these are not just statistics, but are people whose families and friends have lost a loved one.
The encouraging news, however, is that this is happening to fewer and fewer people each week as we see the impact that the lockdown is having.
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The encouraging news, however, is that this is happening to fewer and fewer people each week as we see the impact that the lockdown is having.
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