Northern Ireland. Don’t say you weren’t warned. By former PMs, before Brexit. Three troubling interviews today. @JulianBKing worried by unilateral action on NIP. @DUPleader implies NIP incompatible with NI in UK, yet likes hard Brexit👇at 1h53m, 2h33m
There’s a huge amount of crucial detail associated with NIP implementation.
As @ciaranmartinoxf says, serious, powerful, focussed leaders need to apply themselves to NI’s situation.
The potential - I’d argue, likely - consequences of failure are terrible. Literally fatal. /4.
The all too frequently patronising attitude to anxious NI Unionists is unhelpful. It’s legal evasion & sophistry to pretend that removal of NI from the UK’s internal market - a frontier between it & GB - isn’t a change in NI status requiring majority consent under the GFA. /5.
The see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil attitude to the original sin - the UK’s departure from the EU Customs Union & Single Market - is a recipe for disaster. /6.
Outside CU+SM, or substantially identical arrangements, there’s no legally, economically or politically sustainable Brexit for the UK of GB & NI. /7.
But, as we’ve seen, some treat these matters as optional. Secondary to other considerations. That in itself is unsustainable. And exceptionally reckless. Until the original sin is excised, the louring Brexit cloud will cast a dark shadow over NI, the whole UK & beyond. /8. End
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Actually Existing Brexit - Macmillan United States of Europe (English USE Federal Dependency) Education paper, pub. 2049
“Brexit was never an ideology to serve the needs of a ‘sovereign’ population. /1.
Its aim was profoundly to restructure political, social and economic life. ‘Actually Existing Brexit’ was voted for by no one. During its first 30 days ‘Actually Existing Brexit’ proved its non-viability. /2.
Economic, social & political forces engendered within it immediately started to destroy it & the UK from within. And the pattern of its disastrous implosion was linked inextricably to the nature of ‘Actually Existing Brexit’./3.
Brexit “vaccine victory”. EU-UK “vaccine war”. Intra-EU squabbling. We can learn something vital. Existential. Not about vaccines. Nor pandemics. And not what Brexiters or “I-like-the-EU-but-feel-I-must-criticise-it-now” commentators claim. Join me, on a short journey & long🧵/1.
.@guyverhofstadt criticises the EU’s vaccine policy & its execution, launching a barely veiled, ferocious, personal attack on @vonderleyen. Notably, however, he concludes the strategic answer is much greater central EU power, a “Health Union”. /2.
.@quatremer defends the EU approach in an opinion piece in @guardian, much derided by @robertshrimsley (often sympathetic to the EU), & @giselastuart (a co-chair of Vote Leave), among many others. /3.
Arbitrary removal of millions of people’s citizenship rights in the UK is a cause for national shame, not celebratory (& inaccurate) government statements.
My tweet, below, refers to it being 2021, not 1935. Some have asked why 1935?
The German govt removed, & replaced with inferior status, citizenship rights of those deemed not German. Specifically “Jews”, defined by the Nazis. Oppression & industrialised murder followed.
(Tweet on current relevance next)./2.
Current relevance of 1935 Laws
2020 Immigration Act removes, & replaces with inferior status, citizenship rights in UK of millions deemed not British. Unlike 1935 it doesn’t criminalise sexual relations with those of pure “blood” & hasn’t led to killing.
@DAOBarry You put your finger on the crucial aspects of international law: good faith, & power. The GFA/ BA is an international agreement, with legally binding treaty force & no exit clause. /1.
@DAOBarry Voluntary recourse by both parties to arbitration is available, for genuine differences in interpretation. If both seek arbitration & accept any ruling, no one else is likely to wish to intervene. /2.
@DAOBarry However, in this case, if RoI views & those of the rest of the EU, diverged (very unlikely) it would get complicated. If the US were unhappy, that would also be tricky. But most likely a way would be found, behind the scenes, to get a result all could accept. /3.
Brexit & Northern Ireland. Don’t you just love the bemused response to groups angry at the results of a border down the Irish Sea, & the lies told about it? “But they voted for it” & “suck it up, you wanted a hard Brexit, dumbos” miss the point. There is one. Bear with me. /1.
Stoking potential violence is completely irresponsible. Those doing it must stop. But it mightn’t be a bad idea if the rest of the UK - not least supporters of the lunatic, unsustainable hard Brexit of which we’re experiencing the early, predictably awful throes - .../2.
... understood what’s really going on. People in NI, of whatever political, cultural or other persuasion, aren’t stupid. They’re like everyone else: products of circumstance & their own ability to respond. /3.
Massively appreciate your positivity @BReid27. As MD of UK Trade & Investment, working closely with Invest NI was always a top priority for me. But (you know well) political instability kills investment/ wealth creation. NIP offers potential opportunities. Reality’s different./1.
The Protocol’s the result of a bodged Brexit, founded on falsehoods & failures. Key features - a frontier between NI & the rest of the UK, partial EU control over NI as an enclave distinct from the UK (GB), no prior vote to agree to what many see as a change of NI status .../2.
... in/ relative to the UK - are accepted neither by the governing party of the UK nor by the largest NI party. Even though they voted for them in the House of Commons. It’s a fundamentally unstable, untenable situation. /3.