Eric Topol Profile picture
Mar 6, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The spectrum of covid illness and effect of the vaccines in clinical trials
1. The trials were designed and powered for protection from mild to moderate illness. Not severe infections. Not asymptomatic infections. Not hospitalizations or deaths. Not #LongCovid. Image
2. The Table summarizes the data to point out how few severe endpoints occurred. The largest N of endpoints was in the J&J trial and <10% fell into the "severe" category. All together for over 152,000 participants, <100 severe endpoints. Image
3. We registered concern last fall about this matter, that there will be inadequate events/statistical power to judge severe infections and outcomes nytimes.com/2020/09/22/opi… Image
4. The different trials in different countries makes same comparisons difficult, but we can adjust for the D614G strain: the efficacy for mRNA vaccines was 95%, Sputnik V 91% and J&J 72%. A > 20 point percent drop-off.
@maggiekb1 has a very good 🧵today
5. What does this mean for asymptomatic infections?
If mild infections are suppressed more, then you might expect the same for the carrier state. Proper studies with very frequent assessment for shedding, viral load are pending (we don't know yet)
6. What does this mean for #LongCovid?
If you don't suppress mild and moderate infections well, which represent the largest fraction of LongCovid, there will be a gap in impact of a vaccine. Not what the trials were designed for. An inference. Image
7. From the clinical trial data, to say there is equivalent efficacy for J&J is incorrect; the assertion is based on a very limited number of "severe" events, a small fraction (<10%) of endpoints. Vaccines have potential impact across the full clinical spectrum.
8. Good discussion on vaccine efficacy @NYTScience nytimes.com/interactive/20… by @carlzimmer @collinskeith but it oversteps on hospitalizations and deaths, for which there are not enough events and this was not the 1° endpoint Image
9. Here @DLeonhardt reviews the vaccine efficacy and particularly the concern about J&J 's. nytimes.com/2021/03/04/bri…
He discounts the importance of mild infections (should be mild and moderate), the primary endpoint of the trials. Image
10. In the same article it is stated: "The number that we should all truly care about is what are the chances I'm going to get this thing and get really sick or die. There is essentially no chance you will die of Covid, which is breathtaking"—@Bob_Wachter
11. That unfortunately isn't certain since the trials were woefully underpowered for severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths. And mild/moderate infections do have implications (spread, #LongCovid) which can't be ignored. Things to keep in mind for judging efficacy
12. The real proof of vaccine protection from severe covid-19, deaths and hospitalizations comes from millions of people w/ real world evidence (unfortunately, not RCTs). There's no shortage of that emerging now from Israel, the UK, and US nursing homes

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More from @EricTopol

Dec 9
We're learning how to control the immune response, like a rheostat, even in the brain. Implications for understanding the basis and potential treatment of autoimmune conditions like multiple sclerosis, #LongCovid, #MECFS, and brain cancer.
A brief review of 6 recent, important reports
in the new Ground Truths, open-accessImage
Such as Programming T cells with brain-specific proteins and payloads
@ScienceMagazine science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Or peptide fragments of myelin basic protein that suppress the immune response @Nature nature.com/articles/s4158…Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
New @NEJM
A whopping (~90%) reduction of progression to Type 2 diabetes with tirzepatide (GLP-1 drug, dual receptor) vs placebo in a randomized trial of >2,500 participants with obesity, absolute reduction of 10/100 treated

by @AniaJastreboff and collaboratorsnejm.org/doi/full/10.10…Image
In other GLP-1 new publications today
—Country-wide Sweden reduced hospitalizations for alcohol or substance abuse with these drugs
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap… @JAMAPsych
—Concerns about discontinuation
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… @JAMA_current Image
Other new anti-obesity drugs in the pipeline, one that also increases energy expenditure
@NatureNV nature.com/articles/d4158…Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
A dedicated issue of @ScienceTM on #LongCovid
—Sex-specific differences, with perspective by @VirusesImmunity and @SilvaJ_C
—Insights for therapies @AndreaCoxMDPhD
—Deconvoluting "Osler's Web" @MichaelPelusoMD @DeeksSteven @DrMaureenHanson @SaydahSharon
—+RECOVER Trial, Lyme diseaseImage
Image
Image
Where we have failed to date: finding an effective therapy. That has to change
science.org/doi/epdf/10.11…Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19
An elegant @Nature study by @AkassoglouLab has illuminated our understanding of the role of fibrin (component of blood clots), #SARSCoV2, and brain inflammation in Covid and #LongCovid.
This discovery and more in the new Ground Truths podcast, with transcript, key figures (such as as the one below) and citations. Open-access. Link in my profile.Image
Image
A clip from our conversation. Unknowingly, @AkassoglouLab was gearing up for understanding this complex pathophysiology for many years before Covid hit
For treatment, it's not just as simple as preventing fibrin clots. It's isolating the pro-inflammatory action of fibrin, targeted by the antibody
Read 4 tweets
Oct 9
Covid and increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) 3-years out

2-fold increased for any severity of Covid
~4-fold increase for Covid requiring hospitalization
"a coronary artery disease equivalent"
interaction with non-O blood types
@uk_biobankahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/AT…Image
"A major finding from our analyses was that the risk
of MACE among the subset of hospitalized COVID-
19 cases without known CVD (ie, primary prevention
patients) was comparable to (or even slightly higher than) the risk in patients with CVD, PAD, or diabetes but without COVID-19."
"one of the first examples of a gene-pathogen exposure interaction for thrombotic events"
I think it's the first one documented, likely others to be unraveled
Read 4 tweets
Aug 2
New US Covid genomic surveillance
The KP.3.1.1 variant is on the move to become dominant, more of a challenge to our immune response than KP.3 and prior variants (especially without new KP.2 booster when we need it for high-risk individuals) Image
It's the deletion 31/31 that makes the KP.3.1.1 spike different, but otherwise 2 mutations away from KP.2 (R346T and Q493E) Image
Buckle up; this wave isn't over yet d/t KP.3.1.1's emergence
Read 4 tweets

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