@macrocephalopod Hmmm. I’m sure this won’t shock you, but I’m going to respectfully disagree...1st, I hope we can agree that there are major structural components to how this elaborate machine operates. Throwing your hands up & claiming that they don’t matter, or that they are too complicated to
@macrocephalopod 2/x Measure or too small to separate from the noise, is simply not true. Clearly we don’t know all of the components of the machine. Clearly we can’t measure perfectly even all the components that we do know. Think of it as 1700’s medicine. That doesn’t mean, doctors are Quacks
@macrocephalopod 3/ during this time. Incomplete info when dealing w/ a complicated machine can lead to dangerous conclusions & incorrect treatments. But your odds of survival at the time from seeing a doc was still dramatically better than w/out. Flows are the life🩸of the system. By definition
@macrocephalopod 4/ they cause supply/demand. And the Reflexivity of current positioning is the largest factoR in driving these flows. U can understand and measure the largest components here, &!you can significantly shift the probability distributions in your favor, if you can do this well. It
@macrocephalopod 5/ is surely a very imperfect science, but to be clear it is a science to the trained mechanic, with objective measurements and results. I think it is cynical to claim that anyone that might be educating about the machine must be a charlatan, for if it
@macrocephalopod 6/6 were a doc back then, I ask u, that had expanded knowledge of a system of the body, would you have judged them as a fraud b/c they didn’t keep the info to themselves to profit in their own clinic?

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More from @jam_croissant

8 Mar
1/x This market’s been in a protracted tug-o-war for 1.5 months, as we sit here playing🐔w/ the, long highlighted, 1 std dev down of the 20 day In ETH once again..This 1st occurred 1/29 w/the ‘memeltdown’. Now we’re seeing it again for the 3rd x in<2 wks. As I’ve discussed before
2/x spending this kind of time in this weak technical, during what should otherwise be a🪟of: 1)VERY bullish Vanna & Charm flows 2) Improving seasonality 3) Strong midterm momentum/trend 4)ST oversold & 5)a healthy repair of retail bullish over positioning is a ⚠️sign, speaks to
3/x how poor all the other critical structural macro flows have been...Price is truth, & momentum is seriously flagging despite other flows for the 1st time since Sept. Hence, the shift in our distributions from a ST bullish ER with 2 sided fat tails, to what appears to have a
Read 17 tweets
5 Mar
1/x Whew. #longgamma was the right call... Our scalper collected +150 pts today. This is why it’s important not to be dogmatic. As I said last night: weakness in the face of what should hav been dominant & growing vanna flows, improving seasonality & coming stim tendies, speaks
2/x to strong bearish flows. Today was an Important technical break as I have been clear about... Get back in the game & keep chopping, there’s a lot of $ to be made in this environ. Important to not be dogmatic, or 1 sided...be water...the game’s changed...So, will we. Gary’s on
3/x a rampage & will get worse if we can get a move to our*** 3650 initial target. Time to sell the rips @ our levels in off vanna times. Look for countertrend rallies to our ***levels, like we saw at the EOD @ *** 3772 on those persistent & growing BOD & EOD Charm/Vanna flows.
Read 10 tweets
4 Mar
1/x Apologies all, Twas a hectic day. Never an Easy Ride. Obviously this sell off wasn’t our base case, but clearly this kind of right tail has been in the distribution for some time, & luckily we’ve had the gamma & convexity in the portfolio for exactly this kind of scenario. If
2/x we close below the 1 stdev down tomorrow, which seems very likely @ this juncture the trade’s to shift to selling the rallies. But we’re oversold in that context & will be looking for either a countertrend rally, or some sideways chop that amounts to a reverse correction in
3/x time to flatten &/or enter shorts. If we can manage to close above that level, which seems less likely at this juncture, we could be in for yet another kick save, in which the trade is still to buy. @ this point patience w/ long gamma is the key. 3/12 IVol is oversupplied &
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
1/x Time’s not a🐻’s friend...As we’ve explained, w/Vanna back from vacay, she’s putting in serious AH work every night (last 3 nights.) This will only increase as we approach 3/17 & is an increasingly difficult flow for the market to fight. Add to this the increasingly positive
2/x Spring seasonality w/a 🔥real estate market & 🔥 reopening, NTM the imminent fiscal stim firehose, & it seems that selling here is nothing short of swimming upstream. Despite the decline today, fixed strike IVol was compressed in the front of the curve, & despite all the hand
3/x wringing of the last several weeks market momentum is still very much positive & the trend continues to be bottom left to top right w/out any signs of a technical break. The last several days have seen a sigh of relief from the rates complex & some nascent signs of ST
Read 11 tweets
2 Mar
@ttmygh 1/2 It is quite unusual, but by no means worthy of scrutiny or conspiratorial speculation @ this point. Historically, the last 5 presidents have given their 1st speech to a joint session of Congress b/w 2/7-2/27. Obama gave his late on 2/24/08 & in Jan it usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
@ttmygh 2/3 was widely communicated by major news outlets as scheduled for 2/23, & Biden had communicated as such as well, but a week before, Biden’s staff claimed to the press it was never scheduled & they weren’t planning it yet w/ out an explanation. My foxnews.com/politics/biden…
@ttmygh 3/4 speculation is that they’re focused on dealing w/ the pandemic & wanted to have a legislative ‘victory’ in the form of progress here with vaccines and fiscal relief before the speech, & this was all delayed. I also think Biden desperately hoped to get bipartisan progress
Read 4 tweets
1 Mar
1/x It is not a coincidence that for the 2nd straight month markets have sought out the 1 stddev point that we’ve proactively pinpointed & closed below it 1 day, only to trap the bears & then close above our level (potentially) the 2nd day. Markets like to cause the most pain for
2/x the largest number of participant positions. This is why it is important to have immense discipline. Ultimately the important decisions are never easy. The market sees to it as such. Tomorrow’s rally isn’t a foregone conclusion by any means. W/ Vanna back, the odds of a
3/x continuation of her late night heroics here converting to a benevolent loop of lower rVol which leads to a better Fed Gary, which leads to more Vanna flows, which leads to a better Fed Gary for the next 2 weeks, given how high Ivols are going into this seasonally
Read 13 tweets

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