Share this page!

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Twitter logo
2 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
@ttmygh 1/2 It is quite unusual, but by no means worthy of scrutiny or conspiratorial speculation @ this point. Historically, the last 5 presidents have given their 1st speech to a joint session of Congress b/w 2/7-2/27. Obama gave his late on 2/24/08 & in Jan it usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
@ttmygh 2/3 was widely communicated by major news outlets as scheduled for 2/23, & Biden had communicated as such as well, but a week before, Biden’s staff claimed to the press it was never scheduled & they weren’t planning it yet w/ out an explanation. My foxnews.com/politics/biden…
@ttmygh 3/4 speculation is that they’re focused on dealing w/ the pandemic & wanted to have a legislative ‘victory’ in the form of progress here with vaccines and fiscal relief before the speech, & this was all delayed. I also think Biden desperately hoped to get bipartisan progress
@ttmygh 4/4 to tout to the public before the speech. This doesn’t seem to be happening at this juncture. I suspect as soon as the Senate passes the the $1.9 Trillion relief package, the speech will be scheduled almost immediately after.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Cem Karsan 🥐

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
3 Mar
1/x Time’s not a🐻’s friend...As we’ve explained, w/Vanna back from vacay, she’s putting in serious AH work every night (last 3 nights.) This will only increase as we approach 3/17 & is an increasingly difficult flow for the market to fight. Add to this the increasingly positive
2/x Spring seasonality w/a 🔥real estate market & 🔥 reopening, NTM the imminent fiscal stim firehose, & it seems that selling here is nothing short of swimming upstream. Despite the decline today, fixed strike IVol was compressed in the front of the curve, & despite all the hand
3/x wringing of the last several weeks market momentum is still very much positive & the trend continues to be bottom left to top right w/out any signs of a technical break. The last several days have seen a sigh of relief from the rates complex & some nascent signs of ST
Read 11 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
1 Mar
1/x It is not a coincidence that for the 2nd straight month markets have sought out the 1 stddev point that we’ve proactively pinpointed & closed below it 1 day, only to trap the bears & then close above our level (potentially) the 2nd day. Markets like to cause the most pain for
2/x the largest number of participant positions. This is why it is important to have immense discipline. Ultimately the important decisions are never easy. The market sees to it as such. Tomorrow’s rally isn’t a foregone conclusion by any means. W/ Vanna back, the odds of a
3/x continuation of her late night heroics here converting to a benevolent loop of lower rVol which leads to a better Fed Gary, which leads to more Vanna flows, which leads to a better Fed Gary for the next 2 weeks, given how high Ivols are going into this seasonally
Read 13 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
26 Feb
1/x Here we are right back@the 1 stdev down of the 20 day. It hasn’t closed below YET, so the bullish trend is hanging by a thread. Its do or die time@ a critical inflection point, so prepare for a big ‘ol game of🐔once again.The🪟of weakness is still open, & just like last month
2/x it’s gonna take a kick save to escape the clutches of the 🐻’s. But to be abundantly clear, if a sell off is to occur before 3/15 it must close below that level today. Historically, Fri into Mon @ this point of the cycle are dangerous animals & should not be trusted, so don’t
3/x be a hero, until later in the day if/when we seem to get the all clear. Word has gotten out to Vanna that Gary is in trouble & arrangements have been made for her to call in for the US open for a brief moment before hopping on her ✈️ ride home. She lands around 2pm CST. This
Read 16 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
24 Feb
1/x Gary continues to be well fed...Despite every negative narrative in the 📚 being thrown at him: Bitcoin/Tether Fraud, TSLA neg Vanna Flows+ Elon/El Chapo rumors, alternating HSE/NDX overnight crashes, Cali Covid strains, & ARKK doomsday machines... he has stood in the hole
2/x & held the Wheel of Fortune together. & despite the fact that he’s clearly tiring a bit, time’s on his side. Vanna should be back from the🏖Fri, refreshed, reinvigorated & ready to shine that $$ smile of hers & boost ratings...Only 1 Q? remains, can Gary last 2.5 more days?
3/x There are strong reasons to believe the answer is YES. Not only is Gary well fed, but as pointed out, the exuberance of 2 wks ago’s a distant memory, as pervasive pessimism & neg narratives. now abound. Once significantly overbot positioning & poor breadth have now normalized
Read 13 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
22 Feb
1/x The market has been in desperate need of refreshing...& SO, w/ Vanna & our charming sloth are still off enjoying their vacation @ the🏖until 12/25-26 in this seasonally weak period, & the market a bit overbought, & Sentiment (low short interest/low Put Call ratios) near ATH’s
2/x & w/ a lack of breadth & underlying weakness from NDX market leadership, like TSLA (where skew & bearish flows have showed signs of a potential crack in the edifice), W/ index skew @ the 95th+%, fragility on the tails increasingly dramatic, also displayed in historic VVIX/VIX
3/x extremes...the market APPEARS to be doing just that. We seem to be 6 days into our called 1.5 week period of correction in time/price. as mentioned, if we’re unable to break our important technic support & Gary’s able to hold his grip above the 1 stdev down of 20 day(2 days)
Read 12 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
16 Feb
1/x Things change quickly around here...Just 2 weeks ago SPX traded 260 pts lower amidst HF deleveraging, while seasoned PM’s clamored about how it was likely the end of the bull market... Now, as the market explodes to our long expected ***objective of 3952, it seems superhuman,
2/x virtually unstoppable. Such is the power of the emotional center of the 🧠, the amygdala. The truth is little’s changed. We remain in an uptrend from bottom left to top right, & Gary’s very much still in control. Yes, there are innumerable reasons for secular concern after a
3/x 23% SPX rally since Sep & nearly 80% rally off the Mar bottom. It’s still a seasonally weak period, w/ mind-bending complacency towards dramatic policy uncertainty under a new admin, which should be on display @ Biden’s SOTU on 2/23. Vanna has less & less power these days, w/
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @jam_croissant has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @jam_croissant!

Read all threads by @jam_croissant