Thread by @MartinJKeatings

Something I am seeing with regularity now is "I'm voting SNP 1/2 in the hope that they MIGHT get a majority". This statement genuinely knocks the wind out of me, and let me be clear, I am not criticising the people saying it. I'm criticising the PR guys at the SNP for...

...perpetuating the myth when they know that SNP1/2 just does not work.

And many will say: "but martin, the reason the SNP lost a majority in 2016 was that people didn't all vote SNP in both lists"...and that I am afraid to say is also false.

The reason the SNP didn't get a majority in 2016 was because of the 2014 referendum and because the ass has fallen out of labour in Scotland. (No! I am not kidding).

The 2011 SNP majority was an electoral aberration, a fluke, a mathematical blip. It required a strange confluence of very particular circumstances to come into alignment. The unionist vote needed to be split in such a way that it didn't challenge the SNP too much in the...

...regions. The SNP vote needed to be low enough in the constituency ballot that they didn't get too badly penalised in the regional list but just enough that they got enough seats in the constituency.

The unionist vote needed to be fairly even-handed, and of course the turnout for the election needed to be what it used to be.

The is because the regional ballot is based on percentages - it is proportional with built in penalisation for parties that do well on the constituency ballot.

This confluence of circumstances had the mathematical chance of happening with odds which were akin to someone being hit by lightning 4 times in a row while dancing on the deck of a boat, naked while doing the macarena.

The the referendum happened. Labour were hammered for their support of the tories. The unionists started to think tactically and threw their weight behind the Tories and the ass fell out of labours vote.

Scottish opinions became polarised. Yes and No. The support for the SNP surged and their vote went through the roof. They took constituency seat after constituency seat (and will continue to do so). But the more constituency seats you take, the more you are penalised...

...in the regional ballot. Why? Because that's how the system was setup by Westminster. It was setup, not just to stop a yes majority, but also to protect unionists against a surge in support for independence. If we can't get the constituency seats then we'll make sure...

...our MSP's get elected by default on the regional list if there is a surge for the SNP in the constituency.

And that's exactly what is happening.

It's unfortunate but the SNP marketing team are perpetuating a myth. Even if they get a majority which is extremely doubtful, every projection shows it would be one or two seats. But the result of that is that half the chamber will still be unionists.

I'll give you an example. Here in Mid-Scotland and Fife 120,000 people vote SNP, 70,000 for the tories, 50,000 for labour. The SNP take 8 our of 9 constituency seats. There is a good chance at the next election they will take all 9.

Then the count starts for the regional ballot and those same 120,000 votes for the SNP are transferred across. The counting staff immediately ask the question of how many seats the SNP got in the constituencies. The answer, of course is 8.

And this number 8 is then used as the basis for calculating the thresholds for the regional count. The take the number of seats a party got in the constituency, in this case for the SNP it was 8. They then add one which gives us the number 9. They then use that to divide...

the SNP's vote share.

But let's take the tories who got 70,000. They got no constituency seats so when the question is asked "how many seats do they have" the answer is "ZERO".

So the counting team take that number 0 and add 1. Which obviously equals 1. And that's how much the Tories vote share is divided by.

In otherwords the SNP are penalised 9 times more than the tories!

And what about labour? Well they too also got no constituency seats and so their divisor is 0 (because the got zero seats) + 1 which equals 1. So they too are panalised 9 times less than the SNP.

And what does this look like in terms of seats. Well, Labour get two seats in the regional ballot with 50,000 votes. The tories get 4 seats in the regional ballot with 70,000 votes, and the SNP being penalised 9 times more than Labour and the Tories with 120,000 votes get......

ZERO seats in the regional ballot.

In other words, every yes supporter in mid-Scotland and fife who voted SNP in the second ballot, well their votes effectively go in the bin.

120,000 wasted votes out of the window, all because the SNP "might" get a majority.

Why go with "might" when you can go for definitely.

In mid-scotland and fife, we have 6 unionists elected by default.

I, as an independent have signed up to be part of one of the most dedicated group of yes supporters I have ever met @action4indy Action for Independence. Not your typical party, but an alliance of independents, afi direct supporters and members of other parties....

...our collective aim is simple. We're putting aside party politics to stand together in defiance of the broken system and we're taking the fight to the unionists.

We have a direct provision in our constitution which states we will support a pro-indy government in the pursuance.

...of our shared goal of independence.

I have never been more privileged to stand beside such dedicated people. Our leader is an ex SNP MSP, an SNP member of 55 years. Our senior team includes another SNP MSP. We have an ex-SNP MEP.

I am obviously the Vice Convener of Media (elected this week formally). I have advocated for independence my entire life, oversee the Peoples Action on Section 30 to try and ensure that we can call a referendum on independence without WM consent....

....and convener of Forward as One, ex head of Yes International. We have other ex-MSP's coming out of retirement to stand with us. We have stalwart independence campaigners, many with decades of experience.

We might not yet be elected but the wealth of experience we have in our ranks at AFI is astounding. Literally hundreds of years of combined experience in politics and in the realm of Independence. We're a credible alternative on the list.

More importantly, we have a constitutional gaurantee of support for the SNP and our primary goal is to remove Unionists who are elected by default. So ask yourself, truly ask yourselves, do you want to risk everything on an infinitesimal chance that the SNP "might" get a...

...majority. Or do you want 2/3 of the entire Scottish Parliament filled with the SNP and those who will support the SNP by constitutional guarantee in the pursuance of Independence? If we unite we can win, and if we can win we can deliver on the promise we made to....

...future generations - that they might have the opportunity to explore their full potential.

Back AFI on the list, let us take the fight to the unionists and finally deliver on the promise of independence.

AFI have broken their back building a solid foundation for the benefit of Scotland and in pursuance of independence and with a big enough swing of wasted votes on the regional list from the SNP to AFI, we could decimate the unionist seats in parliament.

You cannot "split" the vote in the regions where the SNP will be massively penalised, but you can end up voting for unionists to be elected by default by wasting your vote. Now is the time to put party politics aside. Vote SNP 1 and AFI 2 and let's do this! #MAXtheYES

We do not stand on party politics - We stand on the simple premise of #ScotlandBeforeParty

Here's the 32 page report with facts and figures on why SNP 1/2 doesn't work and why #MAXtheYES is the way to go. afi.scot/report-maxthey…