1/5

I've long argued that the two most important steps Beijing can take to rebalance demand in China are to eliminate the hukou system and to provide cheap, low-income housing to the poor. To the extent that, as part of the next 5-year plan, revamping...

scmp.com/news/china/pol…
2/5

the hukou system is serious, it is very good news.

It won’t be easy, however. Eliminating the hukou system is only meaningful to the extent that it involves a massive income transfer from local governments to migrant workers. The thing to remember is that for many...
3/5

decades, municipalities benefitted enormously from the huge contributions migrant workers made to their economies versus the very little they returned to migrant workers. This huge "subsidy" provided by migrant workers allowed them to spend enormously on infrastructure...
4/5

and urban conveniences.

But real reform means returning a substantial share of these contributions to migrant workers in the form of social services and legal protection. The subsidy, in other words, must disappear. There is no way to do this without in the medium term...
5/5

either cutting back sharply on existing services to residents or putting huge budget pressures on these municipalities. In the long term the economic benefits of rebalancing should pay for the medium-term costs, but for several years, the cost will be substantial.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelxpettis

8 Mar
1/4

No country in history has ever been able to choose its long-term economic growth rate. The fact that China – like several countries before it, by the way, before they were forced into "unexpectedly" difficult adjustments – was able to target high...

scmp.com/economy/global…
2/4

GDP growth rates for many years, and plans to continue doing so for another 15 years, must mean either that the Chinese economy and its economic institutions are manipulable in a way that is almost incomprehensible, or that GDP growth simply doesn't mean in China's case...
3/4

what we think it means. It is astonishing to me that most analysts continue to opt for the former, and work on the basis that China's GDP growth rate is somehow comparable to GDP growth rates of other countries. Fortunately Beijing seems to be getting increasingly...
Read 4 tweets
7 Mar
1/4

Yet again Beijing promises to try to get a grip on real estate prices, this time by making more land available to developers. I suspect however that for all their worry, they are not yet willing to take the necessary steps to stop the bubble.

scmp.com/business/china…
2/4

The reason I continue to be skeptical is because it has been a long time since real-estate markets in China were responding mainly to fundamentals. We have been firmly in the world of real-estate speculation for well over a decade, and few economists seem to understand...
3/4

that the dynamics of a speculative market are very different. In a speculative market it is expectations of rising prices that drive demand, in which case there is almost nothing Beijing can do to stabilize prices, let alone have them gently glide downwards. Prices must...
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
1/12

Li Keqiang just announced that China’s GDP growth target – surprising most analysts, who did not expect China to set one this year – would be set “above 6%” in 2021. Most analysts were expecting growth this year to be between 8% and 10%, while...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/12

the more conservative IMF on January revised down its 2021 forecast from 8.2% to 7.9%. This target consequently should come as a shock to most analysts and journalists.

But I have been arguing pretty consistently since December that these forecasts were likely...
3/12

to be wrong for the same reason that forecasts of negative growth in 2020 were so wrong. I expected growth to be 6-7% this year. Why? Because we have to see fixed-asset investment in infrastructure and real-estate development as the residual Beijing uses to meet...
Read 12 tweets
3 Mar
1/10

Guo Shuqing is right to worry about the impact on Chinese financial stability of a continued flood of foreign capital into China. Once foreigners comprise a significant share, the regulators will no longer be able to forcibly restructure...

reut.rs/3uL8JKc
2/10

liabilities at will in order to address the huge imbalances, insolvencies and mismatches in the Chinese banking system. What is more, the risk of contagion will increasingly run both ways. Chinese markets are thoroughly speculative too, and the only reason they don’t yet...
3/10

matter to the rest of the world is because foreign participation is still low. This will change in the next 1-3 years.

He is also right to worry that the more integrated Chinese financial markets are with the rest of the world, the harder it will be to run independent...
Read 10 tweets
2 Mar
1/12

We have to be careful not to misinterpret this point. Chinese investment in Australia peaked in 2016, as the chart shows, before petering off sharply in 2019-20. So of course did Australia's current account deficit, which further swung into surplus by mid-2019 and 2020.
2/12

That is what the graph below shows. In itself this shouldn't be surprising. The current account, after all, is equal to the difference between domestic investment and savings, and by definition net foreign inflows must either raise the former or reduce the latter.
3/12

That is why whether or not Australia's current account deficit is a good thing or not depends on whether it is driven by more overall investment or less overall savings. More foreign inflows into Australia (whether from China or elsewhere) will result in more...
Read 12 tweets
2 Mar
1/4

Guo Shuqing, China's top banking regulator, is worried that "the bubble problem in foreign financial markets will one day pop. China’s market is now highly linked to foreign markets and foreign capital continues to flow in.”

ft.com/content/0c2c22…
2/4

Although foreign participation in Chinese markets is still too low to matter, he is right to worry. China's banking system is rigid, unstable, and largely insolvent, but it was never at much risk of breaking down because of the ability of regulators to isolate it and...
3/4

restructure liabilities at will.

Over time, however, as Chinese financial markets become more integrated into global markets, it will be much harder to suppress adjustment in the domestic financial sector, and so they will become much more like those of typical...
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!