Thread by @YanQinyq

⚡️ China Nuclear power capacity Outlook:

2025: 70 GW, from draft 14th Five-Year plan

2030: 110 GW, China Nuclear Energy Association
2035: 180 GW, CNCC proposal
2050: 327 GW, Tsinghua ICCSD low carbon scenarios

🇨🇳Nuclear power plants locate mostly in coastal regions.

By Dec. 2020, there are 48 reactors with total operating capacity of 49.89 GW according to CEC.

Note some put capacity at 51 GW, depends on whether testing capacities are counted (I was told so...)

🇨🇳2021 Government Work Report states 'Safely and Orderly development of nuclear power', most positive tone in near 10 years...

China 14th FYP sets target of 70 GW nuclear capacity by 2025:
'Safely and steady development of coastal nuclear plants'

China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) proposes:

* Build 6 to 8 reactors per year
* Increase nuclear power plants capacity to 180 GW by 2035, 5% of total power fleet & 10% of generation

cnnc.com.cn/cnnc/300555/30…

reuters.com/article/us-chi…

❗️Sorry there was a typo in the first tweet, CNNC (not CNCC).

Chart is updated too:

There are different data reported on Nuclear capacity currently under construction/approved in China.

@iaeaorg PRIS shows 12GW,
But it doesn't include 2*1534MW Shidao Bay (Guohe One, CAP1400). and the 2*600MW Xiapu CFR-600.

17.377GW under construction.

IAEA PRIS China
pris.iaea.org/pris/CountrySt…

News on Guohe One and Xiapu:
world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Large…

world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/China…

Sanao began construction on 31 Dec...
neimagazine.com/news/newschina…

Is China turning positive wrt Nuclear power?

I think the 2025 target of 70 GW is in line with already planned capacity.

BUT, State Grid pledged in its #CarbonNeutral plan to boost nuclear cap. to 80 GW by 2030 (45GW in Op/pipeline)

https://twitter.com/YanQinyq/status/1366320027398463489?s=20

Perhaps the 14th FYP's positive tone towards Nuclear power development implies that China considers (potentially) using Nuclear to fill the gap to 2030 target of 25% non-fossil share, pledged last December.

I discussed earlier:

https://twitter.com/YanQinyq/status/1338388231214276608?s=20

🇨🇳 achieving 25% non-fossil target would require wind&solar cap. to reach at least 1500GW by 2030, >current target of 1200GW.

Plus, the success of Hualong 1 & Guohe 1 domestic reactors tech means China can rely on indigenous manufactures, lowering costs.

Also this post by @laurimyllyvirta

'the total installed capacity of wind and solar in China will have to reach around 1,600-1,800GW by 2030 to fulfill the target of producing 25% of all energy from non-fossil sources.'

carbonbrief.org/analysis-china…

What does China 2021 Government Work Report's 'Orderly develop Nuclear power' mean?

I think:

1. Detailed planning of the 6-8 reactors per year
2. Good coordination among major nuclear power groups: CNNC, CGNP, SPIC, etc.
3. 'Ensure safety'