Yan Qin Profile picture
Carbon analyst @RefinitivCarbon #EUETS #OCTT #CNETS. Research Associate @OxfordEnergy. Economist and Power Modeller. Views are my own.
Dec 6, 2021
⚠️First year of operation will not be smooth, but China's new national Carbon market is facing many more obstacles in run-up to looming compliance deadline.

'Free borrowing' practice and 'Unclear tax rules' could hamper the market #OCTT

Thread 🧵 What is Free Borrowing?

Ahead of looming Compliance deadline on 31 Dec, provincial Ecology and Environment authority is under pressure to ensure enterprises to surrender enough allowances in time.
However, allocation for 2019-2020 has not finalized
Read 12 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
📰What caused China's Coal shortage?

An in-depth analysis by Caijing (financial news) with exclusive interviews of coal miners/traders/power plants in the journalists' month-long field visits to Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.

Link: bit.ly/3l1ZQbN These firsthand interviews of stakeholders provide new insights into China's energy crunch.

Some mentioned the 'cutting coal mines' capacity since 2016' as a major reason causing coal shortage.

Caijing journalist found out this is not the case.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 22, 2021
🏭Coal-fired power plants are still being favored in German power merit order...despite €70/t #EUETS price

European Gas price is just too HIGH

This does exhibit some fundamental support for current carbon rally: high coal burn leads to high EUA demand Image Coal-fired plants' advantage is clearly shown in its Short run marginal cost vs Gas.

even the 36% efficient coal plants are in the money, as surging gas prices driving up Gas SRMC Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
On 24 October, China released Top-level design document in the '1+N' Carbon Peak and Neutrality policy framework.

On the eve of #COP26, and 1 year after China announced 2060 carbon neutral pledge, the implications of this landmark doc are HUGE:

🧵thread: This doc is released by the Communist Party of China and General Office of the State Council:

It is dated 22 September, and titled 'Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality'
Read 19 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
OFFICIAL: China just released the Top-level design of its carbon neutrality policy framework ‘1+N’

On 24 October, the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on carbon peak and neutrality

via Xinhua China OFFICIALLY releases it top-level design in '1+N' Carbon peak and neutrality policy framework on 24 October.

reported CCTV in daily news Xinwenlianbo:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 21, 2021
🔋China to boost Energy Storage above 30GW by 2025

🇨🇳 state planner NDRC released draft 'Guidelines on Speeding up New Types of Energy Storage (excl. pumped storage) Deployment'

That is tenfold increase in Battery Storage capacity from 2020 level of 3.3GW The draft NDRC guideline states key targets:

2025: New Type of Energy Storage will evolve from initial commercial stage to large-scale deployment.

2030: Full market-based mechanism for Energy Storage 🔋, meeting needs in New Power System.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 19, 2021
🎉Strong boost for Wind and Solar development in China.

🇨🇳energy regulator NEA aims to raise Wind & Solar generation's share in total power consumption to 11% in 2021 and 16.5% in 2025, from 9.7% in 2020.

This implies adding 100GW Wind&Solar per year. Image China National Energy Administration released draft Notice on Wind and Solar Development in 2021 for consultation.

The overall objective is to 'achieve 2030 targets of 25% non-fossil share and 1200GW Wind and Solar capacity'

NEA: nea.gov.cn/2021-04/19/c_1… Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 17, 2021
👇Power trading in China

🇨🇳energy regulator announced 5 new Spot trading pilots, adding to previous 8 pilots since 2017.

In 2020, 8 pilots have all tested full-month continuous settlement, and will start with longer period trial spot trading this year. NDRC announced the expansion of spot trading pilots at spot market weekly work meeting on 9 March.

In addition to 5 new pilots, it also aim to build regional power markets in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Southern (led by Guangdong).

Read 5 tweets
Mar 8, 2021
⚡️ China Nuclear power capacity Outlook:

2025: 70 GW, from draft 14th Five-Year plan

2030: 110 GW, China Nuclear Energy Association
2035: 180 GW, CNCC proposal
2050: 327 GW, Tsinghua ICCSD low carbon scenarios 🇨🇳Nuclear power plants locate mostly in coastal regions.

By Dec. 2020, there are 48 reactors with total operating capacity of 49.89 GW according to CEC.

Note some put capacity at 51 GW, depends on whether testing capacities are counted (I was told so...)
Read 12 tweets