@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan I mean, to the extent that you care about changing anything, it’s in some sense a “personal problem”, because you can only control your own actions.

I don’t usually see much “purchase” or usable value to be gained from the “cosmic horror frame.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan Whether you call it “broken” or not, we live in a world where perpetually going with the flow can land us in trouble. (Eg we can go broke, get sick, make mistakes that hurt people, etc).
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan A world in which all thought is unnecessary — I don’t know if it’s possible *at all*, but it’s a long way off. As COVID19 teaches!
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan And I am VERY confident that humans have STRONG built-in mental machinery that allows us not just to use reflective thought & focused attention & effort, but to enjoy all those things. There is a “gear” that you can activate to make thinking & trying feel GOOD.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan As I understand it, humans evolved bipedalism and big brains by going through a period of massive climate change, drought and starvation. We probably have psychological adaptations specifically for Real Bad Times that require us to change to survive.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan I spent a couple months this year trying to wholly shut off those adaptations in myself.

I had to quit, because my behavior in an increasingly “non-adaptive” state was causing intolerable consequences.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan Basically I concluded that there is something like “dukkha”, something unsatisfactory, about literally ALL responding to the environment. All paying attention, all goal-directed action, all *change* in response to situations.

So I tried to...not.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan And stuff started to go wrong. So I had to come back to a state of engagement/adaptation/“ordinary” thought.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan The thing is, engagement/adaptation/reasonableness/“active” mind/etc isn’t the eternal stillness and peace of “literally nothing is happening, forever”, but if you turn on the gear, it doesn’t hurt either. It’s fun and interesting.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan In fact I suspect the *most* fun in the world is had by people who have objectively nice lives (enough $$, good health, etc) and are in “engaged, active-minded” mode.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan If you’re “engaged/activated” you don’t have time to attend to the dissatisfaction of “something is left Undone, something Needs Change” because lots of things need change and you’re busy changing them. So you never get to the state of All Done, unfortunately.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan But you don’t notice this as a problem, your mind is full of other things, so you’re not tormented by it.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan “Something is Not Done and That’s Terrible” *is* a state of torment, and you can go into intellectual inquiries in a spirit of exhaustion, like, “if I finish this argument can I be All Done and just sleep forever?” Which is what I think Qiaochu is suggesting rationalists do.
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan and the trauma-theory philosophy is “just take that nap/cuddle right now; the intellectual argument won’t give you the peace and stillness you crave.” & I agree with that!
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan But...if you were getting into the argument because you wanted permission to turn off your brain, the argument wasn’t for you anyway.

Sometimes people ask questions from an *engaged* state, because they want to know the answers!
@jd_pressman @QiaochuYuan Sometimes I want to be awake and sometimes I want to be asleep.

I’ve found that being asleep 100% of the time is untenable.

“Rationality is cope” discourse erases the existence of mental states that are neither asleep nor sleepy.

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More from @s_r_constantin

10 Mar
One thing I didn't investigate, but might check next, is how turnover effects play into all this. 🧵
So, let's say the conclusion of my post is correct, and most professional investors "under-research" (in the sense that they'd get better returns if they did more research.)

Is this a *societal* problem?

To answer that, we have to understand turnover.
You could tell a story where "too many investors making dumb investment decisions" is a societal problem because it causes malinvestment.

Perhaps there are opportunities to do productive things with money, that languish unfunded because all the money goes to dumb stuff.
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
Starting to research this, and OMG the quality of research is bad.

“Do CEOs who do X get better company outcomes?” papers are always tiny studies, with all measures *including company performance* self-reported.
I think I still believe one of these papers more than I’d believe a “take” in the news or on Twitter, but less than I’d believe the opinion of a 60-year-old who has a lot of management experience.
We’ll see if the data on investors or investment analysts is better.

I did find one bizarre paper that said the rank of an investment analysis firm was *negatively* correlated with how frequently they reported using the company’s library. (Back before the Internet.)
Read 5 tweets
22 Feb
@oscredwin makes the point that this poll conflates testing the two questions “do most people spend more time deliberating over larger amounts of money than smaller amounts?” and “do people who ever allocate >$1M spend less time deliberating over $100k than those who don’t?”
It’s arguably rational to spend more time deliberating over more money, all else equal, and it’s also arguably rational for your research-time per dollar to decline as your hourly wage increases or as the amount of money you have to allocate increases.
What I’d really like to know is if my subjective impression is correct that as people gain in wealth/authority/seniority, they have a higher “activation energy” to go check object-level facts themselves. More than you’d expect just from their time being valuable.
Read 13 tweets
21 Feb
If you’ve ever spent $1000-$10,000 in one place (either your own money or your company’s money), how much time do you usually spend researching the decision?
If you’ve ever spent $10,000-$100,000 in one place (either your own money or your company’s money), how much time do you usually spend researching the decision?
If you’ve ever spent $100,000-$1,000,000 in one place (either your own money or your company’s money), how much time do you usually spend researching the decision?
Read 5 tweets
11 Feb
With an endorsement from Derek Lowe, my opinion is superfluous, but yes, this study looks legit. Semaglutide causes weight loss in a large, rigorous controlled trial. 🧵follows.
1961 participants, randomized 2:1 to semaglutide or placebo, plus a 500-calorie deficit and exercise program. Mostly white and Asian, mean BMI 38.
Over 68 weeks, the treatment group lost a mean of 16% of their body weight, or 37 pounds. The control group only lost a mean of 3% or 7 pounds.
Read 12 tweets
5 Feb
I looked into this, because yay citizen science.

I could not find one research study using any of the peptides in the RADVAC white paper that found they inhibited SARS-CoV-2 infection in cells, let alone animals or humans.
All those peptides come from in silico studies: “the computer said they ought to bind to various viral proteins.” Plus a lot of theory/mechanism argument.
You have the legal, and IMO, the moral, right to experiment on yourself. But I don’t think this is very likely to work.
Read 8 tweets

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