Thread by @Noahpinion

1/In this @bopinion post, I talk about how the pandemic might change our view of the software industry's productivity and value -- and more importantly, how it might make the software industry more productive and valuable in reality!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

2/First let's talk about *perceptions* of the software industry.

Throughout the pandemic, plenty of people have been skeptical of the ability of "tech" to help us during a plague.

3/But imagine what this pandemic would have been like without online services companies!

First of all, imagine COVID with no online shopping.

4/Second, imagine if there was no distance work, and everyone was a frontline worker (or unemployed).

5/Third, imagine how lonely you would have been with no online communication.

6/And finally, imagine if there were no Google, and you had been dependent on Donald J. Trump for information about the virus.

7/The fact is, online services came through for us HUGE in this pandemic. They made it a lot safer and more emotionally tolerable for millions of people, as well as cushioning the blow to our economy.

Thanks, "tech"!!

8/In fact, this illustrates a general principle.

Technologies' productivity can't just be measured in good times; you have to evaluate how technologies make us robust to disasters.

9/But in fact, the pandemic might ultimately increase the actual productive value of online services!

It might prompt us to find more productive ways to organize our society around the internet.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

10/Remember, it took a long time for electricity to make factories more productive. You couldn't just stick electricity in where steam power had been before. You had to totally rebuild factories around electricity to realize the productivity gains!

bbc.com/news/business-…

11/And remember that in the 80s, computers weren't boosting productivity much. Only once we figured out how to organize our business models around computers did they make a big impact.

mckinsey.com/business-funct…

12/Covid might cause the same thing to happen for online services!

13/So far from making us sneer at Silicon Valley and the software industry, this pandemic should A) cause us to realize the true value that online services provide, and B) make us optimistic about future software-driven productivity growth!

(end)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…