The IPCC climate reports rely on scenarios of how the world will change in the coming decades.
This is the IPCC's description of the 'Sustainability Scenario'.
What does the IPCC assume for economic growth here?
Global GDP per capita increases to over $80,000 per person.
Better health and education, an 'emphasis on human well-being', and lower resource and energy intensity –– the future described in that scenario sounds like a future that I'd like to help achieve.
At the same time that scenario is the most optimistic about global CO2 emissions.
This scenario (SSP1) is also a future in which deforestation comes to an end – and instead we see substantial reforestation and much more space for the wildlife on our planet.
The poverty that dominates the public discussion is the 'International Poverty Line'.
It is used by the UN to measure what they call ‘extreme poverty’ and is the relevant poverty definition for the UN’s goal of ‘ending extreme poverty’ by 2030.
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This poverty line is drawn by taking the average poverty lines in 15 of the poorest countries in the world.
As a consequence it is extremely low. It is set at $1.90 per day.
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The chart looks the way it would look if the vaccines have the impact we hope they have – but the chart could also look like this for other reasons than vaccines and descriptive statistics are not enough to know that some other reason might explain the differences we see.
For example: young people could be less worried about infecting their parents and therefore are less cautious than before so that cases (and hospitalizations) among young people are increasing, while they are falling for older people.
Health researchers estimate that every year 8 million people die an early death due to smoking. This means that 15%(!) of global deaths are attributed to smoking.
Smoking causes incredible suffering globally – but we can win the fight: A thread. 👇
With the knowledge that smoking causes cancer and the evidence that cancer didn’t only increase with smoking, but also declined when smoking declined, it may appear obvious that smoking kills.
But it wasn't obvious *at all* until the second half of the 20th century.
If we would apply the US poverty line for the world – and we would perfectly redistribute the world’s incomes, so that everyone has the average – the world economy would need to more than double to end global poverty.