I want to make clear a few things re: today’s events in BiH’s RS assembly & their formal adoption of what is clearly a program for secession; why it matters, and what may be done about it by local & international actors. 🧵 klix.ba/clanak/2103101…
As I noted y’day, while this formally appears like a (baseless) critique of the OHR, it’s fundamentally an attack on the Dayton Peace Accords and the Bosnian state. The call for “peaceful separation” makes clear the actual aim: RS secession & the dissolution of BiH.
That isn’t new. Dodik has made his intentions clear for yrs; he is explicit in his secessionism. And as I’ve explained before, he’s only grown more brazen bc no one has stood up to him. EU bears particular responsibility here but no one’s hands are clean. balkaninsight.com/2020/03/02/bos…
Germany, of course, has been especially problematic in this regard. Its recent OHR putsch is only part of a pattern of obstructionist behavior re: systemic reforms in BiH. Berlin talks about progress in BiH but obstructs its implementation. And this is the result.
Nor is Dodik alone in this adventurism. This is 💯 coordinated w/ the HDZ to scare the EU & above all the U.S. to back off of any kind of attempt at structural reform. Any rationalization of the Bosnian state is a threat to Dodik & Covic bc it means BiH authorities would...
...finally have the political capacities to decisively defend the sovereignty & territorial integrity of the Bosnian state. It’s that simple.
The path fwd now is clear bc every other approach has been tried and it has failed. Dodik (& Covic) cannot be appeased.
The path fwd now is clear bc every other approach has been tried and it has failed. Dodik (& Covic) cannot be appeased.
The will not compromise, they will not moderate. But they will bend the knee *as they always have* when they are confronted w/ real consequences & credible threats. They are opportunists; take their opportunities away & they’ll buckle.
The U.S. & EU need to get serious on consequences, now. Sanctions, asset freezes, travel bans, real elxns reform. Let them squirm, let them see that Putin isn’t coming. Let Zagreb & Belgrade see how far they want to take this thing, really.
Hold the line and they will bend.
Hold the line and they will bend.
Alternatively, everyone can wash their hands as they’ve done to date & let local actors sort it out. No one will like that outcome but it’s the one becoming inevitable bc no one wants to tell a village hetman that he’s out of his league.
There will be no dissolution of BiH, either bc the U.S. & EU will finally work to established a functional liberal democratic regime in BiH — or bc things will be settled by local actors, all willing & capable of using force. Time to choose, Europe. /j
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