My grandmother always told me to focus on relationships. She was the first female stock broker in Kansas City. Perhaps this is what she meant:

Berkshire closed at $398,840, a new high. $BRK bought back stock at $13.63 in the spring of 1965, just before Mr. Buffett took over. 1/
Berkshire's gain is 2,926,100% or 20.2% per year, 2x the annual gain of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the Caracas Exchange Index was the same 13.63 bolívares in May 2018. It's now 2,576,884 bolívares, an annual gain of 7,190%, 6.5x the gain in $BRK in less than 3 years vs. 56 years. 2/
Now, the dollar lost 88% of its purchasing power since 1965. Bitcoin wasn't a thing so if you wanted to hedge you could buy gold, which was $35/oz for more than 30 years beginning in 1934. Remarkably, gold compounded at 7.2% for the past 56 years. Stocks were a better hedge. 3/
Since 2008 the bolívar has had several iterations. It had 3 lives at the Bolívar fuerte & 4 (so far) as the Bolívar soberano, with changes occurring at least annually since 2016. Against the dollar the bolívar declined from 16.9 to 1,873,297, a loss (so far) of 99.9991%. 4/
As in Weimar Germany, stocks (some) in Venezuela retained some purchasing power. Friends that left Venezuela prior to 2003's capital controls did not leave the country to get rich compared to the suckers that stayed. They left for personal safety and to preserve some wealth. 5/
Presuming Venezuela can move beyond marxist socialism and solve their leadership crisis, will those that go back once the ultimate currency stabilizes be so rich to be able to purchase all of the assets in the state? The answer goes back to relationships. 6/
I'm proud of my grandmother here in Women's History Month & miss her every day. She battled the inflationary 70s for her clients. I wonder what she'd say about relationships today? Cash, bonds, stocks, Berkshire, gold, Bitcoin? Not sure that's what she meant but maybe it was! 7/7

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More from @ChrisBloomstran

27 Feb
A few quick obversions from the $BRKA annual.

1) Total cash declined by $638 million from 9/30, not by $7.4 billion as is widely reported. A $6.8B payable for T-bills purchased at 9/30 means cash was never $145.7B. Y/Y cash increased by $10.3B. 1/
2) BRK sold a net $2.4B in common stocks during the quarter and $8.6B for the year. $AAPL was an $11B trim. I don’t like the language about Apple as the “third most valuable asset.” I prefer the language about “pocketing $11 billion by selling a small portion of our position.” 2/
At high prices let’s keep the $11B “small” Apple sales coming.

3) Share repos totaled $24.7B for the year, $9B in 4Q. Subsequent purchases through February 16 reduced the share count by an additional 0.8%. A rising price is not slowing the pace of buying. 3/
Read 7 tweets
15 Feb
Jim, I have a ton of respect for your work but this is a bad take. $BRKA traded as high as 3x book in the late 90's, rewarded for compounding book at 25% a year for three decades. Trades for 125% of BV today, so a 60% decline, yet BVPS compounded way faster than the S&P...1/
When the stock was expensive Buffett used it as currency to buy companies. In 2020? Repurchased shares meaningfully @ 105% of BV. Growth in BVPS killed the S&P 500 by more than 3%/yr from the late 90’s, between 10-14% versus 7-10% for the index depending on the beginning year. 2/
The stock portfolio also wins. 21% in 2020 vs 18.4%. 39.8% in 2019 vs 24.8%. Even from 1998 when the portfolio was overvalued, $KO at close to 50x, the portfolio still wins 7.6% to 7.2%. I bought $BRKA in 2000 at 105% of BV. BRK’s BVPS grew 9.7% from there vs 7.2% for the S&P. 3/
Read 11 tweets
11 Feb
@charliebilello, question for you. Housing is > 40% of the CPI. You show US house prices up 10%. The St. Louis Fed reports a 2.3% increase y/y in avg prices from $384.6k to $393.3k. Rents (below) are down. The CPI is tilted to rental equivalents & includes utilities, etc... 1/ Image
Transportation (eg. airfares, autos) are the 2nd largest component & prices are weakened by the pandemic. Food/beverage is up ~4% so inflation there. Medical and education are each about 7% of the index and prices there are flat. My daughter's $$$$ college had no tuition hike. 2/ Image
I get that the commodities you listed are up a ton but they have a tiny impact on GDP. On housing, Case-Shiller & Zillow do show high-single-digit increases y/y but from an inflation/household affordability perspective don't take the huge drop in mortgage rates into account. 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
24 Jan
Whoa! Working on my Berkshire model here. $BRK owns ~7.5% of BYD. Paid<$250m in '08. Sales were $17.5B in '19, matching the market cap of $17B at year-end '19. $BRK's position was $1.1B, a nice gain over 12 years. The shares rose from HKD38.85 on 12/31/19 to 254.60 yesterday..1/2
Exchange rate is 7.75HKD/USD. Sales in $ are now $20B. Market cap? $98B. EBITDA margin 13%. BRK's position closed 2020 at $5.9B and is now $7.5B! You won't see it in BRK's 13-F but the position is now the 6th largest in the stock portfolio! Omaha to Charlie, "Time to sell?" 2/
The stock was up 423% in 2020 alone. Over the ~12.5 years Berkshire's owned it, BYD compounded at more than 32% per year, much of which came when the EV mania took hold in June. It's up 25% already in 2021. Just imagine if it catches the EV CAR company I won't mention here! 3/
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
The marriage of auto insurance & Tesla. Fiction or non? It must be hell on the sell side when you have a sell recommendation on a stock that takes off like a SpaceX rocket. Or on a company raising capital. POMO (Pressure Of Missing Out)? So it seems. Yet another $TSLA thread...1/
Can't help it. Hard to miss the price target raise on $TSLA this week (1/5) at Morgan Stanley from $540 to $810. The stock was $729.77 at the 1/4 close. The analyst had an underweight (sell) recommendation on Tesla as recently as June 12 and a target of $130. Oh so long ago.. /2
The stock was upgraded to equal-weight (hold), price target $272 on 8/13, two weeks before a $5B at-the-money equity raise (no coincidence). Another upgrade, this time to outperform (buy) target $540 on 11/18, three weeks before another $5B equity raise (no coincidence). /3
Read 30 tweets
2 Jan
Thanks for the message. As you point out, “Bloomstran doesn’t understand $TSLA growth math or basic investment theory.” If you don’t mind, given my deficiencies, could you add some color to your 2025 projections? The non-believers and I would be most grateful. Some questions...1/
You have EV adoption rising from 3% to 20% in five years, a 6x increase (46% CAGR) and Tesla market share at 25%. 2019 global new vehicle sales totaled ~95m units and will be way lower this year. Let's call 2020 a throwaway for the industry, and hats off to $TSLA for growing. 2/
From the 2019 base, if we assume 4% market growth then new global units in 2025 would be 115m and at your expected 20% share Tesla would sell 29 million vehicles. Is this your assumption? Sounds aggressive given Tesla’s 500k unit run rate for 2020 and 1/2% market share. 3/
Read 23 tweets

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