Who should you trust?

The government? An influencer? A think tank? The CDC? Experts? What does “expert” even mean?

First, you should trust yourself. Everybody else might be wrong or have an agenda

But sometimes you might be wrong / be biased/ lack expertise. What then?
We then say “trust experts”. But which one? You can find an “expert” for any opinion.

What is an expert?
Traditionally, it’s a credentialed person or one named to a position of authority. Both of these things are the same.

A credential is just other ppl vouching for you
If you have a PhD, it’s because you passed some tests made by other ppl who also have PhDs, who got theirs through other PhDs. A PhD is trustworthy insofar as the chain of previous PhDs is.

An authority figure is legitimate only insofar as those naming her are legitimate.
If these ppl have a track record of being right, their standing will increase. And viceversa.

How do we know they have a track record?

Ideally, you could judge by yourself. Each time somebody seems right to you, you trust him more.
And when you’re not sure whether to trust or not, look around. What are other people who you trust saying about this new statement? The more trustworthy people agree with something, the more you should trust it
Trust then is like Google’s PageRank algorithm. The more important pages point at yours, the more important your page becomes.
Ppl are like sites, and their opinions are pages. If an opinion (=page) receives lots of praise (=backlinks) from trustworthy ppl (=high domain authority sites), your opinion guama authority. Do that a lot, and you (=site) gain authority too
So who should you trust?

Those who have a track record of being right.

And if you’re not equipped to tell if somebody is right? Then look at a track record of other trustworthy ppl agreeing.

A PhD is just one more way to prove a track record of others vouching for you
Some say “Trust facts”

But most facts go through a layer of trust to ppl

The reporter of the news. Their source.

The scientist that published a paper. Her reviewers. The other scientist that failed to replicate the findings.

For most facts, you rely on trust to somebody

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tomas Pueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tomaspueyo

24 Feb
The 5th estate (social media and its influencers) is destroying the 4th estate (the press and its reporters).

Exhibit A:
This was impossible even a decade ago. But as leaders build their own channels, they circumvent the traditional gatekeepers and turn them redundant
This echoes how the 4th estate took power away from the 1st estate (church) and gave it to the 2nd (aristocracy)

stratechery.com/2019/the-inter…
@benthompson
Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
We’re entering a world where sanctions to countries might start disappearing.

They never were very successful anyways. Look at Cuba, North Korea, Iran. Did they really change behaviors?

Not much.

Did their elites suffer and feel pressured? Much less than the ppl
Sanctions were always a pretty bad deal.

Now on top of that, they will be unenforceable.

The US based its ability to sanction based on its grip over the global financial system. That is disappearing.

It won’t be able to size the assets of elites, safeguarded in Bitcoin.
It won’t be able to freeze the pipelines of global trade, because DeFi will replace the legacy use of systems like SWIFT. The requirement to buy oil in dollars will likely suffer workarounds, if it doesn’t simply disappear as the % of US’s global GDP shrinks.
Read 5 tweets
19 Feb
The efficacy of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines is probably ~92% , very close to 2 doses (~95%).

Huge ramifications: we should ramp up single dose for these vaccines as quickly as possible. Postpone the 2nd dose.

This doubles the # of ppl protected & ~halves the time to herd immun.
This is what @Bob_Wachter defends in @NEJM
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Here are the calculations
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
This reversal is truly ground-breaking. We could be getting out of the woods much faster.

It doesn't mean we stop the 2nd dose, but by postponing it we build up production capacity for when it's needed, and protect many more ppl in the meantime
Read 4 tweets
15 Feb
Look at this map intently. I'm going to ask you a question about it.

Don't cheat, look at it well.
Ready?
Ok.
Where was the Austro-Hungarian empire?
Or Hungary, before that.
For the last 1000 years or so.
If you guessed right, congratulations!
Here's how Hungary evolved over the last 1000 years.
(Austro-Hungary for ~70 years before WWI)
Read 6 tweets
14 Feb
I was looking at some maps for a future article and saw something interesting about Italy.

The Po River Valley is the richest and highest-density area because it's the most fertile.

But then there's this line of cities. That's so weird. Why?
So I turned to look at what's there, and a bunch of cities are on a near perfect line! From Piacenza to Rimini through Parma, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna or Forli.

They're all connected by the E45. So I wondered: What's the history of E45?
Turns out it was the Via Aemilia that Romans built to control the Po Valley.

They built it on the mountainside of the Appenine Mountains, as straight as they could for efficiency, and then built cities along its way!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_Aemil…
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
The main concern I'm hearing right now: What if new COVID variants keep evolving so much that vaccines can't keep up and we end up in a situation like the flu?

It's possible, but I think it's unlikely. Here's why:
The flu has 2 advantages:
1. Other animals can be reservoirs, so even if you stop it in humans it could go back from them,

Do you remember avian flu? Swine flu? Animals that carry the flu include ducks, chickens, pigs, whales, horses, birds..
cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/v…
Meanwhile, so far COVID has only been witnessed to easily jump between humans and minks AFAIK. There's not much data on this yet, but it's very hopeful
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!