Thread by @CramonMigration

One thing that merits reflection when looking at the situation at the border is whether the Trump policy regime would have permanently deterred migrants from arriving at the border. And this is where the EU-Turkey deal, which sought to slow migration to Europe, is instructional

https://twitter.com/KannoYoungs/status/1369813504530800643

The plan slowed down migration to the EU. However, its viability came into question in 2020 as the terms of the deal weren't being implemented - including issues over payments to Turkey to support it - which created significant frustrations for Turkey reuters.com/article/us-syr…

Migrants also began making their way to Europe, albeit through dangerous routes through the Mediterranean rather than the land route. In response, EU member states like Italy and Greece began taking hardline measures against the docking of these boats ecfr.eu/special/mappin…

The reliance on other countries to serve as interdiction states to stop migration and closing off asylum access does not permanently deter immigration. Instead, it prompts individuals to take dangerous routes and remains at the mercy of partner countries to maintain these regimes

Now a second Trump term could have seen him reject effort of MX and the CentAm countries to cancel the ACAs, MPP, or refuse Title 42 expulsions. But Mexico's law that prohibits detention for child and family migrants would have been an opening salvo against Title 42 expulsions

And it's an open question whether the current situation in CentAm would have led more people to find increasingly more dangerous routes to the US, including evading CBP officers like migrants did from the 70s to mid-2010s or looking at sea routes to enter nytimes.com/2021/02/03/mag…

Either way, the EU case shows that endless deterrence is not effective long-term governance. You need a comprehensive regional plan that creates positive and negative incentives to manage migration. The Biden admin gets this, but we'll see if they can implement this vision soon