Thread by @jam_croissant

1/x I’ll keep it brief, as everything from Monday & Friday still applies👇. We called the likely move to exactly 3957. Then we were fortunate to call the pause & small pullback we’re seeing. So, here we are on a prequarterly OpEx Fri.3/12 w/ Gary 🦍happy & full of🍌 & w/👸& 🦥 w/

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1369550171655319552

2/x some remaining business to take care of, as this is 1 of their busiest days of the year. As I mentioned, much like the market played 🐔 w/the critical 1 std dev down for a week, now it’s likely to play🐔 w/this critical level.The market likes to take things to these important

3/x inflection points & W/ $414 billion in stimmy checks on the way, and seasonality trending positively as we turn into the spring, the tug-o-war of whether or not we are going to get the blow off top before the decline is on the verge of being decided with this level/ this week

4/x We’ll know a lot more very soon. As we resolve this important inflection point...The price action b/w now & Vixperation will tell us all we need to know. A close above ATH& we’ll likely be off to the races (4250-4300?) But a Failure to breach that by 3/17 should send us 🛗⬇️.

5/x as said on the lows, the positive ST forces were formidable, 1)VERY bullish Vanna & Charm flows 2) Improving seasonality 3) Strong midterm momentum/trend 4)ST oversold & 5)a healthy repair of retail bullish over positioning is a ⚠️sign, speaks to. but many of these are fading

6/x as retail sentiment has flipped bullish again, the market has flipped from oversold back to overbought, & its midterm momentum is clearly waning, & soon Vol flows will be in decline as well. So, given all this, if the weakness we are seeing persists, the opening🪟of weakness

7/x could be particularly problematic. As we highlighted last week, Price is truth, & momentum is seriously flagging despite other flows for the 1st time since Sept. Hence, the shift in our distributions early this week from a ST bullish ER with 2 sided fat tails, to a narrower

8/x distribution with a more negative ER, & w/the same left tail, & a likely opportunity to sell the coming rip for stair steps in the month to come...the primary drivers of the bearish flows we’re experiencing are those that we have patiently called for since Aug to likely being

9/x the sell the news catalyst upon the expected spring reopening..RATES. Not surprisingly, the bear steepening continues in ETH, punishing the ‘duration trade’ & ultimately maybe more importantly continuing to activate the potential growing tail sitting out in the ARKK ‘doomsday

10/x machine’ & connected leveraged trades like TSLA...not to mention the obvious broad based selling in Risk Parity, especially when it comes to rebalancing coming up at the EOQ +partial removal of the TINA effect. In the end these are the flows that really matter. So, now that

11/x the transient Vanna flows, poor retail sentiment, & oversold conditions have repaired themselves as predicted w/ the countertrend rally, it is likely be relatively short lived, as momo $ leadership is fading & 1)Taxes will come due in a month in mid April,to 2)& it will be

12/x time to realize LTGains from last March’s buying... & maybe most importantly 3) the economy should begin to reopen, diverting precious $$$ & attention from retail equity demand back to the real economy while 4)pushing yields & up & diverting even more $$$ from equities over

13/x to bonds...as TINA continues its unwind & 5) teaching many increasingly fundamentally bullish RIA’s once again that the economy is not the market, making it the prototypical SELL THE NEWS EVENT... In the meantime, it is time to play for a bit of digestion, & potentially come

14/x Monday another game of 🐔 w/ATH’s. Although we are bearish from ATH, all else being equal, we will not be dogmatic. W/ a close above ATH we will turn bullish and prepare for the avalanche of speculative retail stimmy flow from the coming SOTU and infrastructure reveal..

15/x the trends invoked from these announcements could have secular legs, especially in a tendie driven meme stink world 🚀again, so look to those log awaited trades that have been delayed by the stim bill & impeachment...+ clean energy infrastructure, - big tech antitrust(made

16/x clear w/aptmnt of TimWu over the weekend), - China centric names as he likely takes a harder line on human rights there, as he needs to find common ground to reach across the aisle & the country... Lastly, continue to listen to not only what the Fed is saying, but what they

17/x are NOT saying. As they continue to seem to want to stem the speculative fervor in the market as they have purposefully shied away from addressing low liquidity & stretched positioning evident in the repo market... they usually get what they want. & the critical Fed meeting

18/18 lines up w/the opening of our 🪟 of weakness and could very well serve as a potential catalyst. Continue to add to cheap convexity to protect that fat tail, & own call gamma/hedged delta neutral in the 🪟of weakness... Good Luck! 🍀