We have increased signifanctly in Cambria Automotive last few weeks. Its our "reopening trade" #1 together with Franklin Covey.
Trading at 4-6x P/E on a normalised P/E multiple with net cash balance sheet
After last opening in 2020 there was big pend-up demand.
Auto Trader says website traffic have soaring ahead of reopening. UK househould savings is at record levels. Consumers says they will prefer cars to public transport
There is a need to get up to schedule on repair and maintaince of cars to keep warranty etc.
Cambria innovate in new leasing and credit products etc.
Brexit solved without tarrif on cars.
GBP is up a lot = lower inport prices for consumers
Real estate prices in the UK is going up. Cambria own prime real estate around the London area that have been written down from cost over several years despite real estate prices going up a lot. We think book value at fair market value is signifcantly higher
Despite this you pay far below book value for the shares today.
Cambria have grown a strong footprint in luxury cars like Bentley, Lamborghini, Aston Martin etc. There is waiting lists for those cars = no cyclicality (they sell everything they get).
You cant team up with Mark Lavery who owns 40 % of the company and his long term partner James Mullins.
The team have compounded book value at 17 % a year for 12 years despite great financial crisis, brexit, covid etc.
Think about what they can achieve when times are good
Symmetry own 2,9 % of the company - we look to see what Mark and James can achieve in the years ahead. The market is ready for consolidation and Cambria have a great track record.
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Naked Wines grew 80 % YoY in H1. Current guidance and analyst estimates is for around 60 % YoY growth FY or close to 40-45 % in H2. We think its still way to low and think the company will do a reverse profit warning in january or after the new CFO have walked through numbers....
.... Here is why:
1) All the data-sources we track are indicating good or accelerating growth (traffic, credit-card, shipment data etc.)
2) When we talk to people in the industry they all say business is still really good
.....
.... 3) UK website crashed before christmass due to surging demand.
4) Further lockdowns in especially UK. People need to stay home and drink and cant go out.
5) This is a subscription model. Business accelated doing H1 with september up +100 % YoY
"Insr are forced to cease their business by Finanstilsynet, the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. Problems are partly relating to Danish Workers’ Compensation where several other insurers have suffered as well......
...Insr seem to have remaining exposure on agent agreements and not unlikely on reserves and reinsurance. That is probably why they have not been acquired for the tax deduction opportunity...
...I am sad that a challenger in the consumer segment is forced to cease business. Insr ceasing business is not good for the market where incumbents are milking consumers...
1) Signed 32, 37 and 40 new costumers in 2017, 2018 and 2019. In jan+feb 2020 alone they signed 14 !!! Even including march+april (corona) they think they will get to 35-40 for full year. Was on track to +50 before Corona.
… They will keep growing in 2020. Revenue is recurring revenue. He says their costumers are +100 mio. EUR costumers. He dont think any would go down due to Corona. Most paid all 2020 fees upfront in jan 2020 so no credit risk for Piteco....
… Myrios growth was 28 % in 2019 with a 70 % EBITDA margin (adjusted). They paid (including all earn out) a 8,1 x multiple for this business. Shows the amazing capital allocation of Marco and the team.