Ben Lilly Profile picture
12 Mar, 10 tweets, 4 min read
1/10 Who's buying the dip on this rise? Here's a quick series of charts to make you rethink the @cz_binance news today.

If BTC Goes Higher, It'll Run

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Charts courtesy of @glassnode and @n3ocortex's team.

Full story: jarvislabs.substack.com/p/if-btc-goes-โ€ฆ
2/10 We now have five drawbacks of about 5% in the last week.

It's like we keep taking two steps forward, one step back. Image
3/10 This is healthy profit taking. That's opposed to going vertical towards the all-time high, which is not sustainable.

You want traders choosing sides because somebody is forced to either rebuying or selling. This can lead to strong breaks.
4/10 To see who's on what side, let's look at addresses held by Addresses with balances of 100-100k. As you can see, these wallets are up 63k from the February 28th bottom. Image
5/10 We look at this class of wallets since this demographic timed the 2017 rally better than the rest. Here's a look at that chart. Image
6/10 Additionally, there's another on-chain statistic that tracks the number of wallets accumulating. This stat excludes dormant wallets, wallets receiving dust, and exchange wallets. Look at how vertical the orange line is going since we broke $20k. Image
7/10 The last time the rate of accumulation was this high was back in August 2017. The top of the market cycle wasn't seen for another four months.
8/10 We will dive into these charts some more this coming Monday since they line up with our general view of this cycle. They were mentioned today in case you see BTC hit new ATHs this weekend. This way you aren't left guessing if the breakout has legs.
9/10 If you enjoyed this, please subscribe to our daily newsletter called Espresso. We publish on-chain insights like this and include discussion on Macro views. We even throw in some in-house creations like this correlation DeFi Matrix... Image
10/10 Thanks for reading!

jarvislabs.substack.com/welcome

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More from @MrBenLilly

15 Mar
Reading a great insight by @mhonkasalo regarding Compound protocol.

Decided to collect my thoughts using a twitter thread format.

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Compound set the crypto world on fire when it began to bootstrap liquidity to its network last year. You can probably guess when it happened by looking at this chart. Image
It bootstrapped liquidity through a subsidy program aka the birth of liquidity mining and yield farming. To date 1,140 COMP tokens are distributed per day, about $16.8m per month to serve its tens of thousands of users. Works out to be about $51/user or liquidity provider.
Read 17 tweets
12 Feb
Buy BTC in The Shakeout Zone ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡

1/ 5: The indicator used here is a seven day moving average of the # of bitcoin entering exchanges. Typically when large inflows happen it's a bearish indicator since bitcoin tend to flow to exchanges to be sold.

Chart: @cryptoquant_com
2/5: Placing a seven day MA on this data we can view when inflows are excessive. We placed a green bar to highlight this zone we call the shakeout zone. Turns out this is a great reversal indicator. Meaning when the amount of bitcoin flowing into exchanges reaches an extreme.
3/5: As this indicator hits the shakeout zone it's historically the worst time to sell.

Which also means it's an ideal entry points for multi-month purchases. What's better is when you pair it up with the premium on Grayscale BTC Trust (GBTC).
Read 5 tweets

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