@eyooekpo your observation is germane. My point is: what is the value of a standard guage rail from Lagos to Niger Republic when we can re build the narrow gauge and use the funds better on our roads?
The lag to Kano rail will cost $11.1bn to carry how many containers/goods?
The lag to Kano rail will cost $11.1bn to carry how many containers/goods?
https://twitter.com/eyooekpo/status/1370428359159771138
2. Our highest container throughput was 1.7m in 2012, 2020 was about 1.3m. Lets take an average of 1.5 per annum growing 10% yearly will it justify $11bn dollars? We are assuming all the cargo are going to Kano if we are realistic then only about 25% may need to go up north
3. To pay back $11bn (4.4 trillion at N400) in 30 years with NO INTEREST will require about 146bn naira annually and 401m daily from passenger and cargo. I may be totally wrong but I doubt we have the numbers and capacity for such revenues.
4. The Kenya rail project built with Chinese loan of $3.2bn standard gauge connecting Port of Mombasa to Nairobi has lost $200m in 3 years. Importers still use trucks because of last mile issues and high cost. Nigeria rail will bleed more money than Kenya's
4. In my opinion rebuilding our highways, dualising 9th mile - Makurdi-jos-Bauchi. Keffi-Akwanga-Lafia-Jos. Ibadan-ilorin-Mokwa-Bida to Suleman and to Kano will cost less than $11bn and still rehabilitate the narrow gauge. Revenues will come from highway toll or fuel surcharge
5. PH to Maiduguri and Lagos to Kano together with Abuja to Okene on a dual carriage way will ease road travels while the narrow gauge can carry containers, cattle and other goods at relative low prices to connect our Airports and new ports like Lekki, Bonny, Ibaka etc.
6. The goal of transport infrastructure is safe movement of people and goods. We need an integrated plan (we actually have one named MITI done in 2003) to reduce cost, align resources with need, expand capacity as need arises and create sustainable maintenance plan
7. The Kenyan example of a loss making rail line suggests that the Chinese are not particular about due diligence and transport data. I guess they will be particular about repayment. Building a standard guage line to Niger cannot be explained especially with borrowed funds.
8. DPR say we consume 38m litres of fuel daily, Pet Minister says 52m if we take 40m as the number and reduce the current cost profile by N4 per litre (about 56bn per annum) and transfer to loan repayment account we can pay back Chinese loans with toll plazas making up difference
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