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Mario Cibelli Profile picture
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14 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I’m going to add a few more to this list.
A 'contrarian' sell side analyst with a target price 35%+ below current prices
A bull/bear luncheon where the bulls are outnumbered by the bears & undecideds by at least 8 to 1
Quarters that produce short-term victory laps that have absolutely no bearing on the out years/end state of the company.

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More from @mario_cibelli

Mario Cibelli Profile picture
14 Mar
Over the years, I've been involved in some real battleground names where the debate over the company's prospects was quite intense to say the least.

🗣🐂🐻🪖

(1/x)
With some of these companies, I, and other longs, have been opposite some highly reputable, brand name funds.
At one investor meeting many years ago, after going over a favored long at the time, I was hit with 'but so & so are short that name' to which I responded 'so what, we’re both going to be right.'
Read 16 tweets
Mario Cibelli Profile picture
6 Mar
Some thoughts on a narrow topic: What $SFIX's service may look like as it continues to evolve. As usual I have ABSOLUTELY no view on short-term results or quarterly expectations.

👕👟👗👠👔👞

(1/x)
My real interest lies in what the company might look like over the next 5 to 10 years. On that basis, Stitchfix remains a very interesting company to analyze.
The company continues to inch impressively closer to its end state: a 100% unique, personalized apparel showroom for consumers.
Read 18 tweets
Mario Cibelli Profile picture
28 Feb
My instinct is that the market is currently setting business values that may be planting the seeds for the next round of consolidation in global delivery.

♟🛵🍔🍕🥟🚙

(1/x)
Among other things, business fundamentals and expectations combine to imprecisely drive share prices/asset values. In turn, those same share prices/values can also shift fundamental opportunity sets h/t reflexivity.
Changing prices can open up previously closed windows on strategic M&A and create new opportunities that might not otherwise exist at different values.
Read 17 tweets
Mario Cibelli Profile picture
23 Feb
I confess I find cryptos - digital scarcity/placeholders/uniques - utterly fascinating.

💵💎🛢💰

(1/x)
I'm not an expert by any means but I think it’s possible that, like the internet, digital placeholders have a profound effect on the world and potentially rearrange winners & losers in select ecosystems.
My initial purchases of cryptos were simply to learn more about them and consider how they might affect companies I followed but since then I have continued to personally acquire portions of them at increasingly higher prices - primarily Bitcoin & Ethereum.
Read 30 tweets
Mario Cibelli Profile picture
13 Feb
An incomplete list of things that one may encounter along the way if one plans on owning a great consumer company over the long-term - 5 to 10+ years

(1/x)
Spiking CAC that makes near term unit economics/transactions appear far less attractive
Rapidly decelerating growth rates that make high market penetrations appear near impossible
Read 11 tweets
Mario Cibelli Profile picture
27 Jan
During the summer of 2017, investor fear of Amazon was hitting all time highs. In our Q2 2017 letter we discussed opportunities that Amazon Fever was creating in shares of a few non-tech companies.

(1/x) Image
Amazon had mastered the creation of this fear and opportunistically applied it to make life more difficult for competitors and potential competitors. Image
There's no chart of it but Amazon Fever has clearly subsided and is now sitting at three year lows. It's no longer required that pitches/presentations have a few pages on how the business is Amazon proof - now there's lots of flywheels instead.
Read 10 tweets

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