SBF Profile picture
15 Mar, 16 tweets, 3 min read
1) listening to….

Some thoughts:
2) It paints a really compelling picture for primaries mattering, in terms of campaigns/funding/dynamics.

And that things can be random and contingent.
3) around 20 mins in, they talk about people miss-predicting the primary.

I think what they forgot: 2020 wasn't a random election. It was the election of Trump and COVID.
4) They describe D party leaders as all being skeptical of Biden and bullish on Warren.

Which might have made sense in 2016!

But not in 2020.

Because 2020 wasn't an election dominated by enthusiasm or boldness.
5) 2020, from the Democratic side, was an election about two things:

a) dealing with COVID
b) beating Trump

It was during a pandemic. No one was looking for excitement; no one had time or attention for it. The world was too scary as is.
6) And 2020, from the D side, was about beating Trump.

Even the liberal wing cared more about beating Trump than how liberal the candidate was.

And that was always Biden's strength.
7) Biden wasn't trying to be exciting, or to paint a compelling picture of who he was, or build his brand, or bold policies.

He was generic and boring and focused on doing reasonable stuff, I guess, and you know being compassionate and understanding and calm and stuff.
8) It seems like lot of people were drawing parallels to 2008: an unpopular R president and a contested D primary during an international crisis.

In both, the classic Democratic line was: "this is the worst president ever".
9) But in retrospect, I think that line in 2008 seems silly. And 2020 wasn't really that much like 2008.

The main criticisms of Bush were, roughly, "he's unimpressive". So they wanted someone impressive and inspiring.
10) In 2020, Biden seemed unimpressive to some D voters. And that almost seemed like a plus, because in the end "unimpressive" seemed like such an upgrade over the alternative.

Biden was a boring candidate. In 2020, that's what a bit over 50% of the country wanted.
11) Biden's been in office for a couple months now.

Probably his biggest moment was purchasing a bunch of vaccines for COVID.

Which, I mean, duh, of course you buy a lot of vaccines.

Except prior to that, the US hadn't.
12) Around 35 minutes in, they talk about how COVID impacted the campaign.

And I think it hits an important point.

Biden won in part because of COVID. But it wasn't inevitable that his stance would do better than Trump's.
13) If, while keeping his high level priorities on COVID constant, Trump had shown a bit more compassion, and had acted a bit more consistently and operationally efficiently, he might have won.

Conventional wisdom is that hard-on-COVID is the politically good play. Maybe it is.
14) Or maybe sounding reasonable, compassionate, and competent are.
15) Around 40 minutes in they talk about police and protests.

I think that part is worth listening to.

And I wonder what Biden really thinks -- what is behind the public stance and statements.
16) Finally -- there's a bit about the post-election disputes.

Which, I think, is a story missing some details.

Like what would have happened if Pence had defected.

Sometimes, history is oddly contingent on a single person.

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More from @SBF_Alameda

16 Mar
1) What is Oxygen?
2) I guess I should start by saying what it's not.

@Oxygen_protocol isn't an attempt to make a simple, clean margin trading interface as soon as possible. (@mangomarkets sorta is!)

Oxygen is going down a different route:

what is the most powerful borrow/lending product?
3) And what do we have to do to get there?

It's an approach that mirror's @FTX_Official's launch in some ways.

And perhaps some parts of the design will seem familiar.
Read 14 tweets
16 Mar
1) A graph of latency on FTX over time:
2) As the exchange has grown, latency has too.

Which sucks. Latency is higher than it was 6 months ago.

So, a few weeks ago, we started working on reducing it.
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There's more work to go.

We could probably get a factor of ~1.5 improvement over the next month.
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
1) A while ago I wrote a post on Sushiswap:

2) In the end, it wasn't inevitable.

If Nomi hadn't fucked up, maybe SUSHI would be at $100.

If the team hadn't built, maybe it would be at $1.

But it had a shot, because much of what we thought was sacred was in fact chasing yield.
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But most of the people you see using something aren't trying to express their faith. Most people are still searching, and using whatever seems best for them at the time.
Read 16 tweets
6 Mar
1) I'd like to take the opportunity to talk about something more important than my usual shitposts:

the people who have made FTX what it is today.

some names have been altered to preserve anonymity

some facts have been altered to improve the heartiness of the laughs and the deepness of the sighs readers feel.
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S B-A-L heard about the FTT presale and was one of the first to buy.

Something really struck me about that: they didn't seem hesitant, they didn't demand concessions, they didn't demand attention. They were excited.
Read 19 tweets
4 Mar
1) I think there's a lot of arbitrariness here:

2) a) Say that you make $5b and have $5b of one-off expenses.

Earnings: $0.

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Earnings: $0.

c) Now say you issue $10b of equity at a $50b valuation.

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3 Mar
1) How I learned to stop worrying and love rate limits
3) There are two mistakes everyone makes when they write their first trading bot.

The first is not the subject here, but I'll mention it in passing because it's everywhere and wild and hugely impactful:

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