Thread by @swardley

X : What are the major technology impacts in the future ... AI? Bitcoin? Cloud? Digital Transformation?
Me : Collaboration tools and access to data (in particular open data).
X : Eh?
Me : What matters are the practices that emerge.
X : What practices are emerging.
Me : So many ..

1. SWARMING (of people and machines)
2. DISTRIBUTED AND INDIRECT LEARNING
3. DISTRIBUTION OF PROVISION (not power but provision)
4. ACCEPTANCE OF STANDARDS (identification and adoption of)
5. INCENTIVES & FUNDING MODELS (worth based / outcome based models)

6. FOCUS ON INTENT (long term goals)
7. MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRAINTS (including enabling constraints)
8. FOCUS ON PRINCIPLES (over beliefs)
9. SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
10. IMMERSION
11. RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

12. SUSTAINABILITY (not just tickboxes in a CSR)
13. REUSABILITY
14. MANAGING INERTIA (models for identifying and managing)
15. RESILIENCE (both engineering and ecological)
16. MOBILISATION (of people and resources)
17. MANIPULATION (of perceptions and defense against)

18. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
19. AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE
20. REDUCTION OF WASTE
21. RADICALISATION (beyond PR)
22. PROTECTIONISM (including conservation)
23. CORPORATE SHARING (including models for using open source)

24. ADAPTATION (anticipation of change and reacting to)
25. PERCEPTION OF TRUST (creation and maintenance)
26. ETHICS
27. SECURITY (in a virtual world including defense against deep fakes)
28. SOFT POWER (application to a corporate setting)
29. AUTONOMOUS (people and machines)

30. SIMULATION (including digital twins)
31. BASELINES (re-evaluation and use of)
32. AUTOMATION (of processes, identification of such)
33. LOCATION
34. DIVERSITY (creating sustainable and resilient systems)
35. SAFETY (including psychological)

36. BIOLOGICAL MIMICRY (learning from nature)
37. LOGISTICS
38. EXPERIENTIAL MODELS (mechanisms of learning)
39. ASSET OPTIMISED BUSINESS MODELS
40. FORECASTING (and scenario planning)
41. AMORPHOUS BOUNDARIES (fluidity between systems)

X : What about 5G, Industry 4.0, Kubernetes?
Me : Look, the technology stuff all matters to an extent but the really big hitters are those things which impact a huge range of practices. Access to data and collaboration tools are driving enormous changes.

X : To be blunt, "collaboration tools and access to data" sounds ... boring.
Me : It's precisely because it is becoming "boring" that it is having such a huge impact ... see compute to nuts and bolts.

... I don't know how many times I have to say this but it's the boring stuff that really matters. Boring changes the world i.e. AI will have a huge impact as it becomes more "boring".

The winners are those who can make stuff boring, truly mind numbingly boring and so simple that we stop caring about it. See cloud. We care so little about machines that we've even stopped giving them pet names.

... look at satellites, we're making this area so boring that we're talking thousands or tens of thousands of them in LEO ... I doubt they each have individual pet names. That's progress, that'll change everything.

It's why industrial policy matters so much at a Gov level but you need two areas of focus beyond the normal regulation of markets or provision of national services - one is on the R&D side (Gov as VC) but you also need to force industrialisation i.e. make stuff boring (SEZ)

But then, that assumes you can actually perceive the environment i.e. have a modicum of situational awareness. Industrial policy without maps is like digital sovereignty without maps ... noise.

X : Cloud matters.
Me : Compute became boring ages ago. It's a bit like saying "electricity matters" ... sure it's an underlying component but if your focus is on moving to cloud today then you have to ask - "why weren't we doing this a decade ago"?