So in a country with high COVID prevalence the expectation will be CVST rate will be higher than typical year. Temporal association with a vax may be incidental to recent or new infection etc.
So more care than usual has to be taken to disentangle
Some seasonality expected for resp viruses, hard to say how much. England had unique circumstance Feb 7-13th.
- week long cold snap across country of similar magnitude
- no change in restrictions
- no increase in daily mobility
1/
Due to variables being reasonably controlled we can estimate how temperature may affect general transmission dynamics.
Note Seasonality: viruses transmit at ALL times of year but climate affects biology and behaviour which impacts on how much transmission occurs.
2/
Cases by specimen date in England showed a marked deceleration in the rate of decline the week after the cold period. From more than -5% per day to less than -2%.
(daily change adjusted for day of the week effect in testing)
But Ab tires don't increase until 2nd dose for Pfizer, especially in the older age cohort who are the priority vaccine targets. How much protection are we giving them?👇
The 86% is a pooled estimate of all ages with younger population dominating.