One wrinkle of filibuster debate worth considering. One reason McConnell never budged on legislative filibuster is there weren't many GOP priorities that could get 50 votes. In fact, not many priorities, period. They didn't even use every reconciliation bill available. BUT...
...if Democrats were to ditch the filibuster, there would be ENORMOUS pressure on GOP from base to come up with a list of 50-vote bills and whip R votes, if only as punishment to D's. They could essentially invent the demand to pass these bills, if only as a lib owning exercise.
This doesn't necessarily happen without D's ditching the filibuster first. McConnell would just as soon avoid many of these issues. But you may have a Trumpier majority with new room to act on abortion w/ SCOTUS, to name on example, and the last moderate holdouts potentially gone
See more on this from @NRO: R's simply do not have many comparable legislative goals to D's that should make D's think twice about keeping the filibuster....would they come up with some if it were removed? nationalreview.com/corner/to-pres…

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More from @BenjySarlin

12 Mar
The Rubio argument here isn't exactly "it's a worker's party now!" material. It's more: Unions are mostly bad, but we don't like their boss's social politics, therefore let's hold bosses hostage by threatening to withhold our usual opposition to unions. usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
There's virtually no discussion of what the Amazon workers are demanding here. You could read the op-ed and come away thinking they were protesting the LGBT book issues on Fox this week. Just a weird dance between two stories connected only by Republicans mad at Amazon.
These are all links embedded in Rubio's op-ed article. Check out the images tied to Rubio's grievances with Amazon, and the linked story describing the workers' grievances. The connection between them is.....?
Read 5 tweets
11 Mar
One year ago, speculating Trump would come around to Democratic calls for stimulus checks because he could put his name on them
Reviewing takes from the Last Normal Day is fun. Sure enough, Biden won with a suburban surge, absorbed ideas from activists on the left along the way, and his first bill was much more progressive than his D critics expected
Previewing the weird world that would continue for another 8 months: Democrats constantly offering to pump money into the economy in an election year and Trump strangely ignoring them
Read 4 tweets
11 Mar
Reading between the lines, the easiest path seems to be using revenue to offset things they’d like to make permanent (child tax credit, ACA subsidies) and declaring the infrastructure/climate part a long term investment. But still a lot to work out for one bill.
The thing is there’s only so much low-hanging fruit on revenue, even for Democrats. So if you do a strict infrastructure/climate bill and use it all up, you’re left with a lot of stuff they’d like to extend that would have to go into a big expensive bill next.
The one near-guarantee here is bipartisanship is not gonna happen. But Manchin already seems to be signaling that won’t keep him from a bill once it becomes clear R’s won’t join in. Everything feels like kabuki around that point.
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
So this finding gets to something that might apply to several other D priorities. Unlike other partisan fights, D's and R's disagree more on the scope of stimulus rather than the underlying concept. That makes it easier for D's to outbid R's and then argue for their position.
Looking at other attempts by R's to compete with D's on policy, R's could run into same problem in upcoming fights. You want to give out tax credits to workers and parents? Okay, D's will propose bigger ones. You want infrastructure? D's will definitely outbid you there.
Similarly, R's say they want a higher minimum wage? D's clearly aren't united on $15, but they can almost surely outbid R's.
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
NEW: I wrote a little in today's @MTPFirstRead how the Ghosts of 2009 are driving Dems to go BIG BIG BIG on Covid relief -- even as there's mounting evidence the $1.9 trillion is more than needed nbcnews.com/politics/meet-…
You saw today's jobs report, which rules. State budget pictures are improving. New economic forecasts look sunnier. Shots are in arms. Even some Biden allies wonder if $1.9 trillion is overkill given the numbers. @JStein_WaPo had a good roundup on this. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021…
Economists can debate whether $1.9 trillion (and $350b for state/local aid) is too much given the data.

But Biden isn't just looking at data, he's looking at the Senate. One bad roll of the actuarial dice and their ability to pass more stimulus is gone. nbcnews.com/politics/meet-…
Read 7 tweets
2 Mar
NEW: The Affordable Care Act is getting one of its biggest overhauls in a decade, and it's barely a blip on the political radar.

Here's what's going on and why it's so quiet this time. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The biggest ACA change would address one of THE core complaints about the law since passage: The "subsidy cliff" that leaves middle class customers with huge premiums if they don't qualify for federal aid. Now premiums would be capped at 8.5% of income. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
One reason ACA changes in COVID bill are generating little drama?

No one's spending money to stop them.

The health industry, from insurers to hospitals to doctors, love it. It's more money for them with no price controls or taxes. All cake, no spinach. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 6 tweets

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