Remember "flatten the spread"? While the models underlying these graphics were comically inept, I now believe the basic concept will turn out to be correct: the total number of infections can not be reduced, only delayed.
One choice, employed in places like South Dakota, was to do essentially nothing, allowing the virus to spread unmitigated. They have now emerged on the other side with effective seasonally-enhanced herd immunity.
Places like Italy chose the "flatten the spread" route, instituting intermittent lockdowns and ongoing safety theater to keep hospitalizations and deaths at a "manageable" level.
Cases and deaths are on the rise again in Italy, as are lockdowns and protests.
Some isolated locations, such as New Zealand, Australia, Isle of Man (and Ireland?) have committed to a zero Covid goal.
This inevitably leads to delayed immunity and rolling lockdowns.
In the end, it is likely that no mitigation will reduce the toll paid to Covid - they can at best delay the inevitable.
Those places, like Florida or South Dakota or Sweden, which chose not to "flatten the curve" are already on the other side of the epidemic.
Some (un)lucky places, such as Norway, seemed to escape with minimal mitigation and minimal impact. But, are they better off than the Swedes? Norwegians are likely looking at another year (two) or panic before they, too, have paid their toll: news.yahoo.com/norways-capita…
Even with mass vaccination, places like New Zealand, which has staked it's reputation on zero Covid, are facing years of rolling lockdowns and international travel quarantines.
Importantly, nowhere on Earth where the "let it rip" strategy was employed ever faced overwhelmed hospitals.
The bigger threat was empty hospitals, driven by panic, driving up preventable deaths from heart disease, stroke, diabetes.
In the end, would you have rather spent the last year in Sweden or Florida (did everything "wrong") or in Czechia or California (did everything "right")?
Who do you think is going to have a better 2021? New York or Texas?
My son has now been accepted into universities all over the world. The #1 factor he is considering is current death toll - the higher the better, since that means the price has already been paid and future lockdowns are less likely.
The university of Aukland isn't looking great.
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CDC monthly cause of death data is available through the end of August.
Murder increased +24% during the first 8 months of 2020 which implies that, annualized, there were ~4500 additional murders last year in the USA, compared to trend.
Drug overdoses increased +32% during the first year months of 2020; annualized, this implies ~20K excess deaths from OD.
Accidents, excluding motor vehicles, increased +19% in 2020; annualized, this implies ~21K excess deaths.
The singular characteristic of Covid-19 remains heterogeneity of impact.
Regional Heterogeneity: For 3/4 of the global population, Covid has never been a virus of concern; for Europe and the Americas Covid was a major driver of mortality.
Age Heterogeneity: Covid nearly exclusively impacts the elderly, with risk dramatically rising with age. Those under age 50, globally, are at no elevated risk of death from Covid compared to a normal respiratory virus season.
Seasonal Heterogeneity: During the Summer, Covid essentially disappeared from Europe and the temperate regions of the United States. Around the world, Covid has closely followed standard Hope-Simpson seasonal waves.
As most are aware, there has been no flu season this year, with many people mistakenly attributing this to Covid control measures (which work for flu but not covid, apparently).
The Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has released final birth and death estimates for 2020, which show that Covid-19 did not cause any excess mortality in Japan:
Focusing on just this century's data, it is evident that there were between 8K and 30K fewer deaths than expected in 2020, depending upon the trend period chosen (there were an approximately equal number of missing births):
Japan never had a national lockdown; public mask compliance is lower than in Europe or the blue states in the USA, gyms and restaurants remained open, people continued to commute on crowded trains, and most children continue to go to school.
I hiked up Angel's Landing in Zion NP a few days ago. For the first mile of the hike, ~60% wore masks. By the end of the second mile, it was down to 20% masks. At the summit, there were exactly zero masks worn.
I also visited a mini-mart near St. George, UT and watched as person after person walked in with their mask on, looked around at the maskless faces, and immediately took the mask off.
Southern UT, despite the statewide mask mandate, appears to be as open as FL or SD.
I also spent time hiking and climbing in Nevada - and the variance to UT could not have been more stark.
In NV, you are never unaware of Covid. Retail/restaurants are open but operate under capacity limits. Many people wear masks outdoors. Public health posters are everywhere.