1/9 We've been talking publicly about the clinical prioritisation of elective surgery cases in the next phase which has been picked up in the media today. EG @BBCr4today headlines. The tweet thread below sets out our comments in full as there is significant nuance here!
2/9 "We can’t say with certainty how long it will take to tackle the backlog of planned operations because we don’t really know how big that backlog will end up being. The NHS will obviously go as fast as it can, as we always do.
3/9 "But it's already apparent that clearing the entire backlog will take years rather than months. However, it’s important to keep this in perspective. Suggestions we’ve seen that the waiting list will hit 10 million by April are simply not going to happen.
4/9 "But it’s a real worry that, due to covid, waiting lists have grown & will continue to grow for some time yet. Nobody in the NHS wants any patient to wait for treatment but we’ve understandably had to concentrate on saving lives at immediate risk and vaccinating the nation.
5/9 “The key next question is about priorities for the backlog. The NHS is obviously now concentrating on the most urgent cases that had to be delayed for a small number of days or weeks due to the last phase of the pandemic. Trusts are making good and rapid progress here.
6/9 "Longer term, there will inevitably be pressure to prioritise those who have waited more than a year as the size of increase here is getting the most media/political attention. But trusts want to avoid a simplistic approach that only focuses on those who have waited longest.
7/9 "We know there will be people who have greater clinical need. People’s whose lives could be permanently scarred by serious long term illness or who would never be able to go back to work who will not be in the 52 week plus category. So we need sophisticated prioritisation...
8/9 "That prioritisation should be based on local clinicians’ judgements. Rather than being solely determined by what politicians or some in the media are saying about people waiting more than 52 weeks, important though all of these cases are.
9/9 “The NHS has always prioritised treatment on the basis of clinical need and we shouldn’t allow the way we measure waiting lists to divert us from this approach in this new situation".
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1/7 NHS 1H 2021/22 budget now settled. Hurrah. At last! Trust leaders will be relieved that NHS budget for first half of next year has now been finalised. But it is extraordinary that this has been left to just 13 days before the beginning of the new financial year.
2/7 “As we've been publicly highlighting for weeks, trusts have been incredibly frustrated by the delays. This has disrupted planning for another tough year as trusts seek to deal with care backlogs alongside the ongoing challenge from COVID-19.
3/7 "The last thing trust leaders needed was their attention being unnecessarily diverted from the urgent tasks in hand. When we discussed this risk with Government months ago, they promised NHS budgets would be finalised well in advance of the start of the financial year.
1/7 21 days before the start of the new financial year, and still no agreement on the NHS’s 21/22 budget. We've written to @MelJStride, asking him to raise 3 key questions with @RishiSunak when he gives evidence to @CommonsTreasury at 2.30pm tomorrow. See thread for details.
2/7 We are seeking assurances from @RishiSunak that he will honour his commitment to give NHS "whatever it needs" to meet extra COVID costs. Trust leaders fear they'll have to start planning cuts to services / letting staff go unless negotiations conclude this week.
3/7 We're also asking @CommonsTreasury to press @RishiSunak on decision to abandon previous affordability assumption of at least a 2.1% pay rise for NHS staff. Despite this being built into NHS Long Term Plan Implementation Framework & required £ built into NHS Funding Act 2020.
1/20 Front page of @thetimes features our story that, with just 24 days until the start of the new financial year, there is still no agreed NHS budget. Trusts facing a £7-8 billion gap for the first half of the financial year. Thread with detail below. thetimes.co.uk/article/cuttin…
2/20 NHS trusts are concerned that there is still no agreement on the NHS’s 2021/22 budget, just 24 days before the new financial year starts. This is despite the Chancellor and Prime Minister’s assurances that that the NHS would get what it needs to fight COVID-19.
3/20 Trusts now worried that they may have to start planning cuts to frontline services from April 1 unless negotiations are concluded satisfactorily this week. Last week's Treasury Red Book shows NHS funding gap for first half of 2021/22 could be as large as £7-8 billion.
1/20 Government lockdown exit roadmap due next week. NHS trust leaders clear, as they’ve been throughout the pandemic, that we need to be cautious. With a strong focus on data, not dates, they think there are four tests to meet before lifting restrictions. New thread below.
2/20 The four tests to pass are COVID case numbers; NHS capacity; progress of vaccination campaign; and protection against new variants. Spoiler alert – the evidence on all four tests shows that there’s a long way to go before we can relax restrictions safely.
3/20 TEST ONE is that COVID case numbers and the R number must drop significantly so infections don’t surge again as soon as restrictions are eased. There are currently around 9,500 daily cases of COVID but when restrictions were eased last year, they were at 1,000 a day….
1/23 We haven't had a lot to celebrate during this pandemic. But achieving the milestone of offering vaccine to the over 70s, health and care workers and the most clinically vulnerable just before target date is a huge cause for celebration, given the scale of the achievement.
2/23 When Margaret Keenan got her first jab in Coventry on December 8th last year, who’d have thought that, by Valentine’s Day, we’d have vaccinated over fourteen million people across the UK in just ten short weeks? Amazing, extraordinary and truly, really, world class!
3/23 I’ve been struck by how much joy and relief has been brought to those doing the vaccinations and those receiving them. A GP told me yesterday that nothing had given him greater pleasure in his long career. And that the patient's relief was sometimes overwhelming.
1/5 Lots of talk today about “being over the peak” and what that means for how quickly we can relax restrictions on social contact. But there are still 26,000 covid-19 patients in hospitals. That's 40% more than the peak in the first phase of covid last April…
2/5 ..The NHS is currently running at 170% of last year's ICU capacity and trusts were still having to create new extra ICU surge capacity last week. The ICU numbers are coming down very slowly. Hospital, community, ambulance and mental health services are still at full stretch..
3/5 ...There’s another national cold snap forecast next week which will increase demand for NHS services, as it always does. NHS staff are deeply exhausted & fatigued having worked at fever pitch intensity for many weeks. So, if we want to use mountain analogies (peaks etc)...