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Chris Hopson

@ChrisCEOHopson

24 Jan

@ObserverUK

1/22 It is deeply worrying that some are already arguing for plans to rapidly relax restrictions on social contact when the NHS is still under such intense pressure. My new comment piece for @ObserverUK on the many reasons to be cautious: theguardian.com/commentisfree/…. Thread below.

2/22 Until we can vaccinate population, restrictions on social contact are only way to prevent unnecessary deaths, reduce patient harm & give NHS the best chance to treat all patients it needs to. Trust leaders are therefore very worried about relaxing restrictions too quickly.

3/22 These must be decisions for elected politicians as only they can balance the complex and difficult trade offs required, using the evidence and advice they receive. But NHS trust leaders believe that there are seven reasons to be very cautious at this point.

Read 22 tweets

Chris Hopson

@ChrisCEOHopson

10 Jan

@thetimes

1/42 Good to see yesterday’s @thetimes editorial attacking the pandemic of covid misinformation. Here’s my twitter contribution to fighting it, as suggested. Lockdown and covid sceptics continue to consistently misuse cherry picked data to argue NHS not unusually busy.

2/42 NHS trust leaders believe this disinformation is profoundly disrespectful to staff and risks reducing vital compliance with restrictions on social contact. Below is a long two part thread answering the main "NHS not unusually busy" and other NHS related disinformation.

3/42 Much of the disinformation comes from simplistic year on year percentage comparisons of data. Some types of NHS demand are flat or lower year on year. But it’s a huge distortion to argue that these individual statistics mean the NHS is not unusually busy.

Read 25 tweets

Chris Hopson

@ChrisCEOHopson

10 Jan

@jburnmurdoch

26/42 Are there any national datasets that accurately capture what is going on? The brilliant @jburnmurdoch has highlighted number of admissions into ICU. The message from his animated chart (click on link) couldn’t be clearer – this winter is v unusual:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1347200811303055364

27/42 Some sceptics arguing covid-19 tests are inaccurate. PCR tests not 100% accurate but hospital inpatient testing accuracy much increased by frequency of testing (typically admission, days 3 & 6/7, then weekly). This means very low numbers of overall false positives.

28/42 Some sceptics argue that the published covid-19 positive inpatient numbers include both those admitted with covid-19 and those who acquired covid-19 in hospital. And that there are significant numbers of patients who have acquired covid-19 in hospital.

Read 17 tweets

Chris Hopson

@ChrisCEOHopson

4 Jan

1/8 Speaking to NHS trust leaders across country and looking at today’s statistics on beds occupied by COVID patients, it's clear we have now reached a critical point. Immediate decisive action is now needed to stem rapidly rising rate of infections, hospital admissions & deaths

2/8 Trust leaders are clear about cost & impact of tighter restrictions. But, to prevent significant numbers of unnecessary deaths, reduce patient harm and give NHS best chance of treating all patients who need care, Govt must now immediately tighten current tier system rules.

3/8 Government will announce its new plans this evening. NHS trust leaders are insistent that any tightening should be immediate and decisive. Current tier 3 rules are insufficient and tier 4 rules appear to just slow down the rate of increase in Covid transmission, not cut it.

Read 8 tweets

Chris Hopson

@ChrisCEOHopson

2 Jan

23/31 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? Speed at which covid transmission & hospital admissions slow down is key. Some evidence that increases in rate of infection starting to slow in parts of London/SE. Current best guess suggests peak NHS covid demand might be 2nd/3rd week January?

24/31 Trust leaders also worried that usual early January demand spike now imminent and wider cold weather will mean more emergency demand and staff absence. On plus side, infection control measures mean low winter flu levels and, at moment, low levels of norovirus and D&V bugs.

25/31 The next two to three weeks are therefore critical. How much more capacity will London/SE need before the peak of demand is reached? How best to support trusts in North and Midlands if they start experiencing the scale of increase in covid cases recently seen in London/SE?

Read 9 tweets

Chris Hopson

@ChrisCEOHopson

2 Jan

1/31 Lots of media coverage, rightly, on huge NHS pressure. What’s cause of, and how widespread, is pressure? How is NHS responding? How serious is this & what’s impact on patients & staff? What’s likely to happen over next few weeks? Long new explainer thread below in two parts.

2/31 WHAT'S CAUSE OF, AND HOW WIDESPREAD IS, CURRENT NHS PRESSURE? Remember overall context. Winter always busiest time of NHS year & NHS capacity always at its most stretched. Last five winters show that, despite increases in capacity, NHS at / over its capacity limit...

3/31 ...Whilst overall staff levels improved in 2020, NHS also entered year with 100k vacancies. Covid makes all this much worse. NHS balancing four sets of patients – winter patients; covid patients; planned care cases, incl. delays from first phase; and those needing vaccine.

Read 23 tweets

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