Data on TESTING in SCHOOLS
Results just published to 10th March (;ast Wednesday)
2.8 million tests in secondary school kids, 1324 positives- 0.048% or 1 in 2086. Lowest rate ever observed
Government figures would have predicted around 10,000.
Will post more analysis shortly
Results just published to 10th March (;ast Wednesday)
2.8 million tests in secondary school kids, 1324 positives- 0.048% or 1 in 2086. Lowest rate ever observed
Government figures would have predicted around 10,000.
Will post more analysis shortly
Using the Government figures from @ab4scambs conservativehome.com/platform/2021/…
Sens=50.1% Spec 99.7% Prevalence of 0.5%
of 2,762,775 tests we would expect 6921 true positives and 825 false positives - nearly 6 times more test positives than have been reported.
Sens=50.1% Spec 99.7% Prevalence of 0.5%
of 2,762,775 tests we would expect 6921 true positives and 825 false positives - nearly 6 times more test positives than have been reported.
To get down to the 1324 positives actually observed, either the prevalence has to be 0.036% (1 fourteenth of the expected rate) - 36 per 100,000
Or the sensitivity of the test has to be a pathetic 3.6%
Of course it could be a bit of both, and higher spec would change it slightly but nowhere near explain it.
Please @DHSCgovuk @MHRAgovuk don't keep ignoring this highly troublesome data.
Please @DHSCgovuk @MHRAgovuk don't keep ignoring this highly troublesome data.
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